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Model picks & player props
Golden State Warriors
VS
Boston Celtics

Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
3
Game Picks
6
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 104.5 (Team Total Points)
For Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics (NBA), model win probability 89.7%, fair odds 1.12, book price -556, model edge +4.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Points
Over
104.5
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Golden State Warriors

  • Jimmy Butler III FOut
  • Moses Moody GOut

Boston Celtics

  • Chris Cenac Jr. FDay-to-day
  • Dillon Mitchell FDay-to-day
  • Hugo Gonzalez GDay-to-day
  • Jayson Tatum FDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 18, 8:11PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 6 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability6 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Brandin Podziemski Golden State Warriors Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brandin Podziemski Golden State Warriors Pts + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Draymond Green Golden State Warriors Points 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brandin Podziemski Golden State Warriors Pts + Rebs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Derrick White Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsGolden State Warriors @ Boston CelticsNo line posted

Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadBoston Celtics spreadNo line posted

Boston Celtics (season record) meet Golden State Warriors; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineBoston Celtics to winNo line posted

Boston Celtics (season record) host or visit Golden State Warriors; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Boston Celtics totalNo line posted

Boston Celtics averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Golden State Warriors; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Golden State Warriors totalNo line posted

Golden State Warriors averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Boston Celtics; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top betting picks for Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors. Includes analysis on key players like Brandin Podziemski. Discover NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors stats and odds.</p>

Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors) Under 19.5 Points + Assists (-128)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Warriors roll into Boston, all eyes will be on Brandin Podziemski, but savvy bettors might want to consider the under on his points plus assists combined at 19.5. Despite his impressive recent form, hitting the mark in seven of his last eight outings, it's worth noting that he faces a formidable Celtics defense known for stifling ball movement. In away games, Podziemski has also consistently fallen short, with an average stat value hovering around 16.16. The Celtics will likely focus their defensive efforts on limiting his impact, which could significantly hinder his production. With an implied probability of 56.2% suggesting that this under is the more likely outcome, it's hard to overlook the trends. The matchup favors Boston, and it seems that Podziemski might have a tough night ahead, making the under a smart bet in this clash.

Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) Over 7.5 Points (-132)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Draymond Green has been quietly effective recently, and with the Warriors facing off against the Celtics, the spotlight is on him to step up. Averaging 12 points per game on the road over his last five outings, Green has embraced the challenge of playing away. His performance against Boston has seen him notch around 9.2 points in their last encounters, but that number jumps to 10.6 when considering his overall recent form. Importantly, he's converted on his point total in six of his last seven games, and he hasn't missed a beat in his last four away contests. The Celtics' defense is tough, but Green's ability to find openings and contribute offensively makes the over on 7.5 points a solid bet. With an expected stat value of 10.07, it seems very likely he'll not only meet but exceed this line. Get ready for a standout performance from Draymond!

Brandin Podziemski (Golden State Warriors) Under 21.5 Points + Rebounds (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In the upcoming clash between the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors, Brandin Podziemski seems poised for a challenging night. While he's shown flashes of brilliance, his recent form suggests a dip in production. Over his last eight games, he's hit the Under on points and rebounds in an impressive seven of them. Particularly concerning is his away performance, where he's only surpassed 21.5 points plus rebounds in one of his last six outings.As he faces a Celtics team notorious for its stifling defense, the odds are stacked against him. The expected stat value of 18.53 paints a clear picture-Podziemski may struggle to find his rhythm in a hostile environment. With an implied probability of 56.5% for the Under, it's hard to ignore the narrative: as the Warriors battle in Boston, Podziemski's numbers are likely to follow suit, landing him below that 21.5 mark.

Derrick White (Boston Celtics) Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Derrick White has been on a tear lately, making him a compelling choice for the Over 19.5 points and rebounds against the Warriors. With an average of 20.4 points and 4.2 rebounds over his last five games, he's clearly found his rhythm. At home, his numbers rise to 19 points and an impressive 6.6 rebounds-a crucial factor as he faces a Warriors team that often struggles defensively on the road. What's particularly exciting is White's recent form at the TD Garden, where he's hit this mark in all three of his last home games. Given the Celtics' need for scoring against a potent Golden State squad, expect White to step up, especially considering he's averaging 15.8 points against them overall. With a solid hit rate of 5 out of his last 6 games, targeting the Over feels like a savvy move. Keep an eye on him to shine bright in this matchup!

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics in the NBA. The model has generated 3 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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