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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jayson Tatum is Over 29.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 62%, edge +16.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 4:30PM UTC
NBA

Jayson Tatum

Boston Celtics

+16.3% Edge
🔥 6 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 29.5 -164 (1.61) · $100→$161
+16.3% Edge
Charlotte Hornets @ Boston Celtics
TD Garden, Boston, MA · Indoor
Wed 8 Apr, 12:00AM
DAY-TO-DAY
Tatum (knee) should once again serve as the unquestioned centerpiece of Boston's offense after the Celtics traded Jaylen Brown for Paul George, John Schuhmann of NBA.com reports.
updated Jul 27, 4:11PM UTC · 36d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
34.9 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 78.4% · the book's price implies 62.1% · gap +16.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs78.4%—62.1%1.28+16.3%

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AI Analysis

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Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics) Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Celtics gear up to host the Hornets, all signs point to Jayson Tatum putting on a show. With an impressive average of 25.8 points and 11.8 rebounds over his last five games, he's been a force to reckon with. At home, he tends to elevate his game, averaging 21.6 points and 11.6 rebounds. Against Charlotte, Tatum has consistently excelled, scoring an average of 26.8 points in their recent matchups. In fact, he's hit the over on this combined points and rebounds mark in all six of his last games, including a perfect 3-for-3 at home. With an expected stat value of 34.93, it feels like a no-brainer to bet on him surpassing that 29.5 line. Expect Tatum to seize the spotlight and deliver a stellar performance that keeps Boston's playoff hopes alive.

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Pick History & Track Record

Jayson Tatum — 2024-25 season averages

Over 82 games in the 2024-25 season, Jayson Tatum averaged 26.6 points, 8.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists in 36.2 minutes per game, shooting 45.1% from the field and 34.8% from three-point range.

26.6
PPG
8.8
RPG
5.8
APG
1.1
SPG
0.5
BPG
36.2
MPG
45.1%
FG%
34.8%
3P%

Jayson Tatum — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Jayson Tatum has played 40.0 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

40.0
MPG (L5)
27.0
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Jayson Tatum — points hit rate

Jayson Tatum has scored over 20.5 points in 45% of 426 career games.

o11.584%
o12.581%
o15.569%
o20.545%
o25.527%
o30.514%

Jayson Tatum — home vs away scoring

At home Jayson Tatum averages 24.9 points per game; on the road, 28.0. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

24.9
PPG at home
28.0
PPG on the road

Jayson Tatum — scoring by opponent

Jayson Tatum scores most against the MIN, averaging 29.7 points per game in that matchup.

29.7
MIN
29.5
POR
29.2
NO
28.4
CHA
27.8
LAL
27.0
DET

Jayson Tatum — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Jayson Tatum has averaged 27.3 points, 10.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
12 May@ NY404284
10 May@ NY402297
7 Mayvs NY4213145
5 Mayvs NY4423166
29 Aprvs ORL3435810
27 Apr@ ORL4237143
25 Apr@ ORL393694
20 Aprvs ORL4017144
11 Aprvs CHA321688
8 Apr@ NY483275
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Jayson Tatum is currently on a 6-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Jayson Tatum is Over 29.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.3% on this pick. Their next game is Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics on Wednesday 8 April at TD Garden, Boston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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