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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Neemias Queta is Under 8.5 on Rebounds.
On the Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 62%, versus the book's implied 49%, for a model edge of +13.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 29, 1:03PM UTC
NBA

Neemias Queta

Boston Celtics

+13.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 8.5 +106 (2.06)
+13.0% Edge
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics
TD Garden, Boston, MA · Indoor
Sun 5 Apr, 7:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
61.5%
Implied Probability
48.5%
Model Edge
+13.0%
Predicted Value
7.8 Rebounds

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds61.5%48.5%1.63+13.0%

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AI Analysis

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Neemias Queta (Boston Celtics) Under 8.5 Rebounds (+106)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When the Celtics face off against the Raptors, all eyes will be on Neemias Queta. However, a closer look reveals that betting the under on his rebounds at 8.5 could be the smart play. While Queta has averaged 9 rebounds over his last five games, his home performance tells a different story, with just 7.2 boards on average at TD Garden.Against the Raptors, he's been even less productive, grabbing only 5.4 rebounds in their previous matchups, and 5.8 at home. With a hit rate of 3 out of 5 at home recently, it's clear he's struggled to meet this line. The Celtics' depth in the frontcourt may also limit his opportunities. With an expected stat value of 7.79 and an implied probability hovering around 48.5%, taking the under feels like a savvy move in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
4.5avg · last 10
L54.8Szn4.9Home4.6Away5.2Best19
5+48%
10+14%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 4.5 · hi 11 · lo 0
24726117240

Neemias Queta is averaging 4.5 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.9, best 19). He clears 5+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
2.8avg · last 10
L52.8Szn3.7Home4.0Away3.3Best12
2+70%
4+45%
6+30%
8+16%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 2.8 · hi 7 · lo 0
2372071600

Neemias Queta is averaging 2.8 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.7, best 12). He clears 4+ in 45% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics Rebounds 8.5 Under +106 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics Points 9.5 Over +132 ✓ HIT
04 Apr 26 Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Rebounds 9.5 Under -192 ✗ MISS
04 Apr 26 Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Rebounds Pending
04 Apr 26 Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Rebounds Pending

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About This Player

Neemias Queta (Boston Celtics) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Neemias Queta is Under 8.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.0% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics on Sunday 5 April at TD Garden, Boston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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