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The latest Bet Better model pick for Max Scherzer is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On Pitcher - Strikeouts, our numbers say this bet wins about 51 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 51%, the price says 50%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 1.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10
Over 2.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 22, 4:30AM UTC
MLB

Max Scherzer

WSN

Value call

Max Scherzer has one live pick today: Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 4.5 that pays $202 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 4.5 +102 (2.02) · $100→$202
Value call
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario · Indoor
Wed 16 Sep, 7:07PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts overs: 181 of 382 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
51 in 100
Predicted
4.3 Pitcher - Strikeouts
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 51.0% · before adjusting for past results 56.3% · the book's price implies 49.5% · gap +1.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts56.3%51.0%49.5%1.96+6.8%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers: Max Scherzer Under 4.5 Pitcher - Strikeouts (+102)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

For this bet to work tonight, we need Max Scherzer to get fewer than 5 strikeouts against the Toronto Blue Jays. Scherzer has been great at limiting hits and walks at Rogers Centre, which usually helps his pitching, but the Blue Jays have been able to make contact against left-handed pitchers this year. They've struggled overall against lefties, but they still have some dangerous hitters who can make it tough for pitchers. Scherzer's track record shows he averages just over 4 strikeouts in his games at this stadium. The Blue Jays tend to battle hard at home, and that could limit his chances to rack up those strikeouts. The real risk is that both teams are pretty close in form, making it hard to predict who will come out on top.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Recent form (last 5 games)

Max Scherzer is averaging 4.0 hits, 0.8 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

4.0
Hits
0.8
HR
0.0
RBI
2.4
Runs
1.2
Walks
3.6
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Max Scherzer has gone over 2.5 SO in 50% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o2.550%
o3.520%
o4.510%
o5.510%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Max Scherzer is averaging 4.0 hits per game over his last 5 and 5.0 in away games, including his recent form against SEA.

4.0
Hits · Overall
5.0
Hits · Away
4.0
Hits · vs SEA
0.8
HR · Overall
1.2
HR · Away
0.5
HR · vs SEA
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Sep 26 Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays Pitcher - Strikeouts 4.5 Under +102 ✓ HIT
16 Sep 26 Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays Pitcher - Walks 1.5 Over -108 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays Pitcher - Walks 1.5 Under -145 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays Pitcher - Hits Allowed — — — Pending
30 Aug 26 Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays Pitcher - Hits Allowed — — — Pending
30 Aug 26 Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays Pitcher - Earned Runs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Max Scherzer (WSN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Max Scherzer is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.8% on this pick. Their next game is Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday 16 September at Rogers Centre, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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