Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Hayden Wesneski is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 49%, for a model edge of +28.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:10PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Under 4.5
+106 (2.06) · $100→$206
+28.9% Edge
Houston Astros
@
San Francisco Giants
Oracle Park, San Francisco, California · Outdoor
Tue 11 Aug, 1:45AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
Implied Probability
48.5%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Hits Allowed | 77.4% | — | 48.5% | 1.29 | +28.9% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime
| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/0 |
| Last 5 games | 0/0 |
| Last 10 games | 0/0 |
See the full 20-game form curve
Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.
Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime
Hayden Wesneski (CHC) Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+106)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
San Francisco Giants play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Hayden Wesneski (CHC) Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+106). That is a Hits Allowed bet. It was priced at +106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Betting angles
3 markets livePitcher - StrikeoutsUpcoming gameU 4.5 -161
Hayden Wesneski MLB strikeouts. Current line U 4.5 at -161.
Pitcher - Hits AllowedUpcoming gameU 4.5 +106 Hayden Wesneski MLB hits allowed. Current line U 4.5 at +106.
Pitcher - Earned RunsUpcoming gameU 2.5 -175 Hayden Wesneski MLB earned runs. Current line U 2.5 at -175.
Hayden Wesneski (CHC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Hayden Wesneski is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +28.9% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants on Tuesday 11 August at Oracle Park, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.