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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
San Francisco Giants

New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 6:54PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Oracle Park, San Francisco
Outdoor
Thu 26 Mar 2026, 12:05AM
20
Game Picks
23
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Yankees -2 (Spread)
For New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants (MLB), model win probability 36.7%, fair odds 2.72, book price +197, model edge +3.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 26 Mar 2026, 12:05AM at Oracle Park.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
New York Yankees
-5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Max Fried SPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut

Probable pitcher

Will Warren SP

San Francisco Giants

  • Trevor McDonald SPOut
  • Harrison Bader CFOut
  • Matt Chapman 3BOut
  • Victor Bericoto RFOut
  • Jonah Cox CFOut
  • Matt Gage RPOut
  • Joel Peguero RPOut
  • Rowan Wick RPOut
  • Hayden Birdsong RPOut
  • Randy Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jose Butto RPOut

Probable pitcher

Tyler Mahle SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ryan McMahon COL Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Willy Adames MIL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ryan McMahon COL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Rafael Devers BOS Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ben Rice Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Francisco GiantsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA2.2Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L52-3Win rec3-7

San Francisco Giants moneyline form: last five 1-4, 2.0 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Francisco Giants run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA2.2Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L52-3

San Francisco Giants spread form: last five 1-4, 2.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Francisco Giants vs New York YankeesNo line posted

San Francisco Giants total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Francisco Giants team totalNo line posted
2.7implied team total
L5 RF2.0L5 RA2.2Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L52-3

San Francisco Giants team total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.0 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ San Francisco Giants — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees. Includes analysis on key players like Austin Wells. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees stats and odds.</p>

Austin Wells (NYY) Under 0.5 Singles (-196)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Giants host the Yankees on March 26, eyes will be on Austin Wells as he steps up to the plate. While he’s shown flashes of potential, recent trends indicate he might struggle against the Giants' left-handed ace. Wells has been in a bit of a funk, with his batting average dipping significantly against pitchers who can command the outer edges of the zone—something the Giants' starter excels at. Moreover, the Yankees' lineup has been inconsistent, particularly against southpaws, often failing to find their rhythm early in games. With the Giants' bullpen also ready to close the door, even if Wells gets on, scoring opportunities could be scarce. Given all this, betting on Wells to stay under 0.5 singles feels like a wise move. The combination of his current form and the matchup dynamics suggest he might just find it tough to get that bat on the ball tonight.

Matt Chapman (TOR) Over 0.5 Hits (-167)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Giants gear up to face the Yankees, keep a close eye on Matt Chapman’s performance at the plate. The slugger is heating up, showcasing a recent surge in form that suggests he’s more than capable of putting a hit on the board. With the Giants’ offense clicking and averaging just over five runs per game lately, there’s ample opportunity for Chapman to capitalize. Let’s not forget his matchup against a Yankees pitching staff that has shown vulnerability, particularly against left-handed hitting. Chapman’s recent approach has him taking better swings and making solid contact, and with the added pressure of this high-stakes matchup, he’s likely to rise to the occasion. With a model prediction suggesting he’ll get at least one hit, betting on him to go over 0.5 hits feels like a smart play as the Giants look to extend their winning momentum at home.

Matt Chapman (TOR) Over 0.5 Hits (-169)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Giants host the Yankees, all eyes should be on Matt Chapman, who’s become a real force at the plate lately. He’s been consistently racking up hits, with an impressive average that reflects his ability to find gaps in opposing defenses. Facing a Yankees pitching staff that’s been a bit shaky, especially against left-handed hitters, Chapman looks poised to take advantage. The Giants have a solid track record at home, and with the wind potentially favoring hitters, the stage is set for Chapman to shine. Plus, the recent trends show him hitting well in high-pressure situations, which further increases his chances of getting that crucial hit. With his current form and the favorable matchup, betting on him to go over 0.5 hits feels like a smart play. Expect the Giants' lineup to capitalize on any pitching mistakes, and Chapman is more than capable of delivering.

San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees : Over 7.5 Total Runs (+124)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Giants take on the Yankees, expect fireworks at Oracle Park. Both teams have shown a penchant for putting runs on the board lately—San Francisco has averaged over 5 runs per game in their last five, while New York is no slouch, contributing significantly to high-scoring affairs. When you look at the starting pitchers, the matchup leans toward a potential shootout. The Giants’ starter has struggled with command, allowing an average of 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Yankees' lineup, featuring the likes of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, thrives against right-handed pitching—making them a constant threat to clear the fences. Given the offensive power both teams wield and the recent trend of scoring, the over on 7.5 runs looks enticing. The combination of hot bats and shaky arms suggests we’re in for a high-scoring evening. Grab that over and enjoy the show!

San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees : Over 8 Total Runs (+142)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Giants host the Yankees on March 26, expect a high-scoring affair under the California sun. Both teams have shown a penchant for offense lately; the Yankees are averaging over five runs per game this month, fueled by a lineup that boasts power hitters capable of launching balls into the outfield. Meanwhile, the Giants have been no slouches, scoring consistently at home with their bats coming alive against right-handed pitching. The pitching matchup may also favor a run-fest. While both starters have had their moments, they’ve allowed runs in clusters at times, particularly against aggressive lineups like these. With the total set at 8, the stage is set for fireworks. Given the Yankees' current form and the Giants' home advantage, betting on the Over feels like a solid play. Don't be surprised if both teams clear the total themselves, making for an exciting night at Oracle Park.

San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees : Over 7 Total Runs (-102)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Giants host the Yankees, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. Both teams have shown a penchant for offensive fireworks lately. The Yankees, with their powerful lineup, have been raking, averaging over five runs a game in their last series. Meanwhile, the Giants have also found their rhythm at the plate, generating consistent scoring against a variety of pitching styles. On the mound, both starting pitchers have had their share of struggles. The Giants’ hurler has been prone to giving up runs in crucial moments, while the Yankees’ starter has shown vulnerability against left-handed batters—something the Giants have in spades. With both offenses clicking and each pitcher facing potential trouble, the Over 7 runs makes a lot of sense. Look for this matchup to turn into a slugfest, where runs come in abundance as these lineups swing for the fences.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
26 Mar 26 Spread New York Yankees -5 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Spread New York Yankees -2.5 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Spread New York Yankees -3.5 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Spread New York Yankees -2 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Spread New York Yankees -4 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 26 March 2026 at Oracle Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 23 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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