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The latest Bet Better model pick for Rafael Devers is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 59%, for a model edge of +12.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 18, 9:16AM UTC
MLB

Rafael Devers

BOS

+12.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -145 (1.69)
+12.4% Edge
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Oracle Park, San Francisco, California · Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul, 8:05PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.6%
Implied Probability
59.2%
Model Edge
+12.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases71.6%—59.2%1.40+12.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Rafael Devers (BOS) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the San Francisco Giants gear up to host the Colorado Rockies, all eyes will be on Rafael Devers. While Devers has shown flashes of brilliance, the matchup against the Giants’ pitching staff presents a unique challenge. With the Giants boasting a stellar 3.60 ERA at home, they're adept at stifling opposing bats, especially after recent outings where they've effectively neutralized powerful hitters. Devers has been battling consistency; despite his impressive capabilities, he’s managed only 1.1 total bases per game against right-handed pitching this season. Moreover, with the Rockies struggling on the road, the likelihood of Devers getting solid contact diminishes. Given the Giants' ability to limit runs and the recent trends pointing to lower offensive outputs, betting under 1.5 total bases for Devers feels like a savvy move. The odds favor the under, and with Devers facing a well-tuned Giants’ staff, it’s tough to envision him crossing that threshold today.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak3
O 0.5100%
O 1.567%

Rafael Devers MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
67%hit L10
Streak2
O 1.567%
O 2.567%
O 3.567%
O 4.533%

Rafael Devers MLB total bases: cleared over 1.5 in 67% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%

Rafael Devers MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak3
O 0.5100%
O 1.567%
O 2.533%
O 3.533%
O 4.533%
O 5.533%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 3.3 · hi 8 · lo 0
280

Rafael Devers MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%
O 1.533%

Rafael Devers MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%
O 1.533%

Rafael Devers MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
67%hit L10
O 0.567%

Rafael Devers MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 67% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -145 ✗ MISS
08 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 2.5 Under -270 ✓ HIT
08 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants Batter - Singles 1.5 Under -769 ✓ HIT
08 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants Batter - Runs Scored — — — Pending
08 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants Batter - Walks — — — Pending
01 Jul 26 San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits — — — Pending

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About This Player

Rafael Devers (BOS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Rafael Devers is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.4% on this pick. Their next game is Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants on Sunday 12 July at Oracle Park, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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