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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Miami Marlins

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 23, 11:05PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Mon 24 Aug 2026, 10:40PM
6
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Boston Red Sox -1.5 Spread +126

The model graded 6 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $226 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 24 Aug 2026, 10:40PM at loanDepot Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win49.8%
The price says42.0%
Best price+126
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Boston Red Sox -1.5 Lean50% chance +126
Moneyline Lean56% chance
Total Runs Lean56% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 877 of 1,754 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 22
Under 5.5
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $365
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Boston Red Sox
-1.5
+ 5 more markets
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All 6 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 55,728+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Under on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Under
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Lowvig
on Under
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Garrett Whitlock RPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jake Bennett SP

Miami Marlins

  • Kyle Stowers 1BOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut

Probable pitcher

Janson Junk SP
Availability updated Aug 23, 10:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

3 markets live
Run LineBoston Red Sox run line-1.5 +126
56%cover %
-3.2proj. margin
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.0Away L51-4vs Miami Marlins L55-0

Boston Red Sox spread vs Miami Marlins is live and our model makes it 56% (LEAN); proj. margin -3.2.

MoneylineBoston Red Sox to win-135
68%model win %
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.0Away L51-4vs Miami Marlins L55-0Free board7-5

Boston Red Sox moneyline vs Miami Marlins is live and our model makes it 68% (HIGH); L5 record 2-3.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs Boston Red SoxOver 7.5 +102
56%over %
9.7proj. runs
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

Miami Marlins total runs vs Boston Red Sox is live and our model makes it 56% (LEAN); proj. runs 9.7.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
1.4runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins — what the model found

Our model graded 6 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins — 6 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 6 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 5 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins — recent results

Miami Marlins have won 2 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 4 of their last 5.

Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2WSHHome
W3–2WSHHome
L1–4PHIAway
L4–6PHIAway
L5–6PHIAway
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–2SFHome
W6–4SFHome
L6–7ARIHome
W9–4ARIHome
W11–1ARIHome

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Kyle Stowers 1BOUT
Anthony Bender RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Ronny Henriquez RPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Trevor Story SSOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Garrett Whitlock RPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins — where the money went

Since betting opened on Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins, the market has moved away from Under across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Total Points — Under 7▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 7▲ Money came for this
Spread — Boston Red Sox -1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 7.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 7.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Miami Marlins 1.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Marlins, or as Marlins vs Sox. The next scheduled game is Monday 24 August 2026 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 6 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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