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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Kansas City Royals

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 1:36AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City
Outdoor
Thu 12 Jun 2025, 11:40PM
20
Game markets graded
7
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Yankees Moneyline -149

The model graded 27 markets for New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $167 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 12 Jun 2025, 11:40PM at Kauffman Stadium.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win73.9%
The price says59.9%
Best price-149
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New York Yankees High74% chance -149
Team Total Lean42% chance
Spread High61% chance
Team Total High98% chance
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props Highup to 92%
Batter - Total Bases × 1 prop Highup to 73%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 91%
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 75%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 96%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New York Yankees
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Ryan McMahon 3BOut
  • George Lombard Jr. SSDay-to-day
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut

Probable pitcher

Will Warren SP

Kansas City Royals

  • Beck Way RPOut
  • Michael Massey 2BOut
  • Tony Gonsolin SPOut
  • Nick Mears RPOut
  • Carlos Estevez RPOut
  • Maikel Garcia 3BOut
  • James McArthur RPOut
  • Luinder Avila SPOut
  • Stephen Kolek SPOut
  • Connor Seabold RPOut
  • Cole Ragans SPOut
  • Jonathan India 2BOut
  • Alec Marsh SPOut

Probable pitcher

Seth Lugo SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 5:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Maikel Garcia KCR Batter - Stolen Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. KCR Batter - Stolen Bases
Jonathan India KCR Batter - Total Bases
Seth Lugo KCR Pitcher - Walks
Cody Bellinger NYY Batter - Hits

+ 7 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineKansas City RoyalsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L53-2

Kansas City Royals moneyline form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Run LineKansas City Royals run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L53-2

Kansas City Royals spread form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Kansas City Royals vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Kansas City Royals total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsKansas City Royals team totalNo line posted
0.9runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L53-2

Kansas City Royals team total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals — what the model found

Our model graded 27 betting markets for New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals — 20 on the game itself and 7 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
7
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 27 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 26 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals — recent results

Kansas City Royals have won 4 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

Kansas City Royals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W8–3CLEAway
W3–0CLEAway
W13–2TORAway
L0–3TORAway
W5–3TORAway
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–2BOSHome
L0–6BOSHome
W1–0BOSHome
L1–5HOUHome
W9–3HOUHome

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Kansas City Royals won 0, New York Yankees won 6.

DateKansas City RoyalsNew York YankeesWinner
May 2707New York Yankees
May 26115New York Yankees
May 2534New York Yankees
Apr 1907New York Yankees
Apr 18413New York Yankees
Apr 1724New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Kansas City Royals
PlayerStatus
Beck Way RPOUT
Michael Massey 2BOUT
Tony Gonsolin SPOUT
Nick Mears RPOUT
Carlos Estevez RPOUT
Maikel Garcia 3BOUT
James McArthur RPOUT
Luinder Avila SPOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Ryan McMahon 3BOUT
George Lombard Jr. SSDAY-TO-DAY
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees. Includes analysis on key players like Bobby Witt Jr.. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees stats and odds.

Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Bobby Witt Jr. for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a solid choice based on the provided statistics. Witt Jr.'s recent performance shows a low average of stolen bases, particularly in home games and against the opposition, the New York Yankees. His average stolen bases in the last five overall games and home games stands at 0.4, which is under the line of 0.5. Furthermore, his stolen base average against the Yankees is zero, indicating a lower likelihood of stealing a base in the upcoming game. Additionally, his current overall hit streak is zero, suggesting his current form might not support a high stolen base rate. Therefore, the statistics strongly suggest a lower probability of Witt Jr. stealing a base in the upcoming game, making the Under 0.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Royals, or as Royals vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Thursday 12 June 2025 at Kauffman Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 29 meetings on record
New York Yankees 24–5 across the last 29 meetings · these games average 8.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
27 May 2026New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals0–7New York Yankees
26 May 2026New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals1–15New York Yankees
25 May 2026New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals3–4New York Yankees
19 Apr 2026Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees7–0New York Yankees
18 Apr 2026Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees13–4New York Yankees
17 Apr 2026Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees4–2New York Yankees
12 Jun 2025New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals0–1New York Yankees
11 Jun 2025New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals3–6New York Yankees
10 Jun 2025New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals2–10New York Yankees
16 Apr 2025Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees4–3New York Yankees

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 29 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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