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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Kansas City Royals

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:21AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City
Outdoor
Thu 12 Jun 2025, 11:40PM
20
Game Picks
7
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Yankees (Moneyline)
For New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals (MLB), model win probability 73.9%, fair odds 1.35, book price -149, model edge +14.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 12 Jun 2025, 11:40PM at Kauffman Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
New York Yankees
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Max Fried SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ryan Weathers SP

Kansas City Royals

  • Bobby Witt Jr. SSDay-to-day
  • Kyle Isbel CFOut
  • Stephen Kolek SPOut
  • Maikel Garcia 3BOut
  • Carlos Estevez RPOut
  • Kris Bubic SPOut
  • Nick Mears RPOut
  • Cole Ragans SPOut
  • Connor Seabold RPOut
  • Jonathan India 2BOut
  • James McArthur RPOut
  • Alec Marsh SPOut

Probable pitcher

Michael Wacha SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 1:28AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Maikel Garcia KCR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bobby Witt Jr. KCR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jonathan India KCR Batter -Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Seth Lugo KCR Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cody Bellinger NYY Batter -Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineKansas City RoyalsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA4.4Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2

Kansas City Royals moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LineKansas City Royals run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA4.4Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2

Kansas City Royals spread form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Kansas City Royals vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Kansas City Royals total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsKansas City Royals team totalNo line posted
3.3implied team total
L5 RF3.2L5 RA4.4Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2

Kansas City Royals team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees. Includes analysis on key players like Bobby Witt Jr.. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees stats and odds.</p>

Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Bobby Witt Jr. for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a solid choice based on the provided statistics. Witt Jr.'s recent performance shows a low average of stolen bases, particularly in home games and against the opposition, the New York Yankees. His average stolen bases in the last five overall games and home games stands at 0.4, which is under the line of 0.5. Furthermore, his stolen base average against the Yankees is zero, indicating a lower likelihood of stealing a base in the upcoming game. Additionally, his current overall hit streak is zero, suggesting his current form might not support a high stolen base rate. Therefore, the statistics strongly suggest a lower probability of Witt Jr. stealing a base in the upcoming game, making the Under 0.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

Jonathan India (KCR) Over 0.5 Total Bases (-208)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Jonathan India's performance data suggests a favorable outcome for the over 0.5 bet in the Batter Total Bases market. Despite a current hit streak of zero, India's recent statistics reveal a consistent batting average. His L5 overall hits average is 1, which indicates he's been getting on base regularly. Furthermore, his L5 home hits average is 0.4, and when playing against the Yankees, this average slightly increases to 0.6. His doubles averages both at home and against the Yankees further support this bet. Although India's home run average is currently zero, his overall performance suggests a high probability of accumulating at least 0.5 total bases in the upcoming game. Therefore, based on these statistics, betting over 0.5 on India is a good choice.

Jonathan India (KCR) Over 0.5 Hits (-204)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Jonathan India's recent performance data supports an over 0.5 hit bet. His L5 overall hit average is 1, which indicates that he has a hit in every game on average. Furthermore, his plate appearances (PA) average both overall and at home are above 4, providing ample opportunities to hit. Although his current hit streak is at zero, it's important to note that streaks in baseball can end and begin abruptly. Moreover, his L5 hit average against the Yankees is 0.6, which is higher than the bet line of 0.5. This suggests that he has a history of performing well against this specific opponent. In conclusion, Jonathan India's recent hitting averages, combined with his history against the Yankees, make the over 0.5 hit bet a solid choice.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees : Under 11.5 Total Runs (-370)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The 'Under 11.5' bet for the Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees game is supported by recent scoring and defensive trends. Both teams have shown low scoring averages in their last five games, with the Royals and Yankees averaging 2.6 and 3.2 runs respectively. This is well below the 11.5 run line. Defensively, the Royals have excelled at home, allowing only 2.4 runs on average in their last five home games. The Yankees have also been solid, allowing just 3.4 runs on average in their last five away games. Additionally, both teams have demonstrated moderate batting averages and home runs, which further supports the likelihood of a low-scoring game. Lastly, the model prediction of 8.11 total runs is significantly lower than the betting line, reinforcing the under bet.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees : Under 10.5 Total Runs (-238)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The 'Under 10.5' bet for the Total Runs market in the Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees game is a strong choice given the recent performance data of both teams. The Royals and Yankees have been displaying relatively low-scoring games, with the Royals averaging 2.6 runs per game and the Yankees averaging 3.2 runs per game over their last 5 matches. This combined average of 5.8 runs is significantly below the line of 10.5. Additionally, both teams have shown solid defensive performances, with the Royals allowing an average of 2.4 runs at home and the Yankees allowing 3.4 runs away. The batting averages also support this trend, with both teams averaging less than 8.2 hits per game. The low home run averages further suggest a low-scoring game. Therefore, the statistical data supports the prediction of a combined score of under 10.5 runs.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees : Under 2.5 alternate_team_totals (+200)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Kansas City Royals Under 2.5' for the Team Total Runs is a strong choice based on the team's recent performance. Over their last five games, the Royals have averaged only 2.6 runs, both overall and at home, which is below the line of 2.5. Additionally, their batting average over the last five games is relatively low, with 8.2 hits overall and only 6.2 at home. Their record against the Yankees also suggests a struggle to score, with a 1-4 record. Meanwhile, the Yankees have a solid defensive record, allowing an average of only 3.4 runs in their last five games, both overall and away. This data suggests that the Royals are likely to score fewer than 2.5 runs in the upcoming game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 12 June 2025 at Kauffman Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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