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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Kansas City Royals

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 4:32PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City
Outdoor
Thu 12 Jun 2025, 11:40PM
20
Game markets graded
7
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 4.5 (Team Total)
The model graded 27 markets for New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $157 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 83.6%, fair odds 1.20, book price -175, model edge +19.9%. Tip-off Thu 12 Jun 2025, 11:40PM at Kauffman Stadium.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Under
6.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Cody Bellinger LFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cam Schlittler SP

Kansas City Royals

  • Maikel Garcia 3BOut
  • Vinnie Pasquantino 1BOut
  • Luinder Avila SPOut
  • Nick Mears RPOut
  • Carlos Estevez RPOut
  • Beck Way RPOut
  • Stephen Kolek SPOut
  • Connor Seabold RPOut
  • Cole Ragans SPOut
  • Jonathan India 2BOut
  • James McArthur RPOut
  • Alec Marsh SPOut

Probable pitcher

Randy Dobnak SP
Availability updated Aug 9, 8:20PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Maikel Garcia KCR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bobby Witt Jr. KCR Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jonathan India KCR Batter -Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Seth Lugo KCR Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cody Bellinger NYY Batter -Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineKansas City RoyalsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L53-2

Kansas City Royals moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineKansas City Royals run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L53-2

Kansas City Royals spread form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Kansas City Royals vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Kansas City Royals total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsKansas City Royals team totalNo line posted
2.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L53-2

Kansas City Royals team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals — what the model found

Our model graded 27 betting markets for New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals — 20 on the game itself and 7 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
7
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 27 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 26 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals — recent results

Kansas City Royals have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

Kansas City Royals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–10CHCHome
L4–6CHCHome
W6–3CHCHome
L3–4MINHome
W2–1MINHome
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2ATLHome
W5–4ATLHome
W3–2ATLHome
L1–3STLHome
W2–0STLHome

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Kansas City Royals
PlayerStatus
Maikel Garcia 3BOUT
Vinnie Pasquantino 1BOUT
Luinder Avila SPOUT
Nick Mears RPOUT
Carlos Estevez RPOUT
Beck Way RPOUT
Stephen Kolek SPOUT
Connor Seabold RPOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Cody Bellinger LFOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Carlos Rodon SPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees. Includes analysis on key players like Bobby Witt Jr.. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees stats and odds.

Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Bobby Witt Jr. for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a solid choice based on the provided statistics. Witt Jr.'s recent performance shows a low average of stolen bases, particularly in home games and against the opposition, the New York Yankees. His average stolen bases in the last five overall games and home games stands at 0.4, which is under the line of 0.5. Furthermore, his stolen base average against the Yankees is zero, indicating a lower likelihood of stealing a base in the upcoming game. Additionally, his current overall hit streak is zero, suggesting his current form might not support a high stolen base rate. Therefore, the statistics strongly suggest a lower probability of Witt Jr. stealing a base in the upcoming game, making the Under 0.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Royals, or as Royals vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Thursday 12 June 2025 at Kauffman Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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