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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ildemaro Vargas is Under 0.5 on Batter - Walks.
On the Batter - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 90%, for a model edge of +4.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 2:41PM UTC
MLB

Ildemaro Vargas

PIT

+4.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Walks Under 0.5 -909 (1.11)
+4.6% Edge
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona · Indoor
Sat 18 Jul, 8:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.7%
Implied Probability
90.1%
Model Edge
+4.6%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Walks94.7%—90.1%1.06+4.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Ildemaro Vargas (PIT) Under 0.5 Walks (-909)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Diamondbacks host the Cardinals, all eyes should be on Ildemaro Vargas, particularly for those considering the under on his walks prop. Vargas has been swinging a hot bat lately, but when it comes to drawing walks, he’s been surprisingly quiet. With an average of just 0.05 walks per game, it’s clear he’s been more of a contact hitter than a patient one at the plate. The Cardinals’ pitching staff has also been stellar, boasting one of the league's lowest walk rates. Their starters have a knack for attacking the strike zone, particularly against aggressive hitters like Vargas. Plus, with the Diamondbacks chasing a playoff spot, Vargas's focus will be on making contact rather than working counts. Given these dynamics, betting the under on his walks just feels like the smart play as he steps into the batter’s box on Saturday.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1avg hits · L5
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Ildemaro Vargas MLB hits: averaging 1 hits over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
1avg total bases · L5
O 1.520%
O 2.510%

Ildemaro Vargas MLB total bases: averaging 1 total bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
1.5avg H+R+RBI · L5
O 0.550%
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 2.3 · hi 5 · lo 0
520

Ildemaro Vargas MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.5 H+R+RBI over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Ildemaro Vargas MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.5avg runs · L5
O 0.530%

Ildemaro Vargas MLB runs scored: averaging 0.5 runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
1avg singles · L5

Ildemaro Vargas MLB singles: averaging 1 singles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.5avg walks · L5

Ildemaro Vargas MLB walks: averaging 0.5 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
1avg strikeouts · L5
Streak3L2060%

Ildemaro Vargas MLB strikeouts: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 1 strikeouts over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Walks 0.5 Under -909 ✗ MISS
10 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 1.5 Under -135 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Runs Scored 1.5 Under -417 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Batter - Walks — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ildemaro Vargas (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ildemaro Vargas is Under 0.5 on Batter - Walks. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday 18 July at Chase Field, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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