On Friday 7 August 2026, Geelong Cats play Essendon Bombers in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 20.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Archie Roberts hitting his disposal line, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 24 disposals. Facing Geelong, a team he's historically performed well against, with an average of 33 disposals in their last five matchups, Archie is poised to shine. His recent form is solid, boasting a 79.8% disposal efficiency and gaining an impressive 446.2 metres on average. With a streak of hitting his numbers and the model predicting him to reach 29.7 disposals, taking the Over on Archie Roberts at 20.5 disposals seems like a smart play. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions and driving Essendon's midfield with his precise ball movement and impact on the contest.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 21.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Archie Roberts' recent form, it's clear he's been a midfield maestro for the Bombers. With an average of 24 disposals over his last five away games and a solid contested possessions rate, he's been a reliable ball magnet. Against Geelong in particular, he's shown up, averaging 33 disposals in their recent matchups. His ability to hit targets efficiently (79.8% disposal efficiency) and cover ground (446.2 meters gained) make him a key playmaker. Despite a slight dip in his last game, he's consistently hitting his disposal mark, evident in his impressive 15 out of 17 hit rate. Facing the Cats at GMHBA Stadium, where he'll be looking to make his mark, backing Archie Roberts to go over 21.5 disposals seems like a smart play.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 22.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Archie Roberts, the Essendon Bombers' midfield maestro, is poised to shine in the upcoming clash against the Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium. In his last five away games, Roberts has been a disposal machine, averaging a stellar 24 disposals per game, well above the line of 22.5 set by the bookies. His recent form against the Cats is even more impressive, with an average of 33 disposals per game in their last encounters. Roberts' ability to find the footy is undeniable, coupled with his high disposal efficiency of 79.8%. His knack for gaining meters and creating turnovers makes him a key playmaker for the Bombers. With a hit rate of 9 out of the last 11 away games, Roberts is a reliable bet to surpass the 22.5 disposals mark. Backing him to hit the over is a smart move, given his consistency and impact in the midfield battle.

That is how our model reads Geelong Cats v Essendon Bombers. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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