On Thursday 1 October 2026, Everton play Chelsea in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -175 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Everton vs Chelsea: Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap (-175)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, there's a compelling case for backing the Toffees with a 0.5 handicap. Recent form shows Everton is finding their stride at home, averaging 1.8 goals per match while conceding just 1.6, highlighting a sturdy defensive effort. Their ability to create 15.8 shots per game suggests they can challenge Chelsea's backline effectively. Chelsea, meanwhile, has been inconsistent on the road, managing only 1.2 goals away and conceding 2.0. Their recent away outings lacked the attacking verve expected from a team of their stature. With Everton's solid home record and Chelsea's struggles, especially against teams with a combative style, you can see the potential for an upset or at least a close contest. Everton’s upward trend makes them a smart pick to cover the 0.5 handicap and keep the pressure on Chelsea.

Everton vs Chelsea: Draw Moneyline (+275)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton welcomes Chelsea to Goodison Park, the stage is set for a tightly contested affair. Recent form reveals that Everton has been resilient at home, managing two wins and three draws in their last five matches. Their defense has tightened, averaging just 0.6 goals conceded, while Chelsea’s away struggles persist, allowing 2.0 goals per game. Notably, both teams have been creating chances with average shots per game hovering around 15, yet neither has converted those opportunities into goals consistently. With both sides averaging 1.2 goals scored in recent outings, the likelihood of a stalemate feels strong. Everton's home record against Chelsea shows a history of draws, and with a modest expected goals output, it’s hard to see either team breaking the deadlock. Given these elements, a draw at 3.75 offers enticing value in what promises to be a tactical battle with few clear scoring chances.

That is how our model reads Everton v Chelsea. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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