On Friday 21 August 2026, Everton play Crystal Palace in the EPL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton vs Crystal Palace: Under 2.5 Total Goals, priced at -112 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
As Everton prepares to host Crystal Palace, the underwhelming form of both teams suggests a low-scoring affair. Everton’s recent home games show a tendency to struggle offensively, averaging just 1.4 goals over the last five outings. Conversely, their opponents have averaged a mere 1 goal in their last five away matches, highlighting a mutual inability to convert chances. Defensively, both sides have conceded an average of 2.2 and 2.4 goals respectively, but that’s somewhat misleading as their xG figures reveal a lack of genuine scoring threats. With Everton's home output of 2 goals against an opponent average of 1.6, and Palace's away form faltering, it's clear the attacking prowess is lacking. The stats indicate that the under 2.5 goals market has a compelling narrative here, suggesting a tightly contested match that may not see more than two goals hit the back of the net.
Everton vs Crystal Palace: Under 2.5 Total Goals (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing As Everton prepares to host Crystal Palace, a glance at both teams’ recent form suggests a tight contest ahead, perfect for an 'Under 2.5' goals bet. Everton’s last five outings have seen them struggle to find the net, averaging just 1.4 goals, while conceding 2.2. At home, they’ve netted 2 goals on average but still faced a steady stream of shots against. Crystal Palace mirrors this trend, with only 1 goal per game in their last five, and their away form paints a bleak picture with an average of 1.2 goals scored but 2.4 conceded. Furthermore, both teams exhibit low xG figures, hinting at a lack of clear-cut chances. Given these patterns, it seems likely that we’ll see a defensive battle, making the 'Under 2.5' a compelling play as both sides aim to solidify their defenses.
Jaydee Canvot (Crystal Palace) Over 0.5 Shots (+130)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing As we gear up for Saturday's showdown between Everton and Crystal Palace, keep an eye on Jaydee Canvot to make his mark. While his recent away form shows a modest average of just 0.2 shots per match, there’s an underlying potential ready to be unleashed. Crystal Palace’s defense has been shaky, and with Everton looking to assert themselves at home, Canvot could find the space he needs to test the keeper. Moreover, his overall shot average has been creeping up, hitting 0.4 recently, and there's a palpable sense that he's due for a breakout. With an implied probability of 43.5% for over 0.5 shots, we’re banking on a little more than just a hopeful hunch. Everton's attacking intent could be the catalyst to push Canvot to at least one shot, making this prop a compelling one for this matchup.
Everton vs Crystal Palace: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-286)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing As Everton prepares to welcome Crystal Palace, the under 3.5 goals bet is looking particularly appealing. Both teams have struggled offensively, with Everton averaging just 1.4 goals in their last five matches, while Palace isn't faring much better, managing only 1 goal per game away. The xG stats illustrate their difficulties, with neither squad showing any real attacking threat recently. Defensively, both sides have been relatively solid, limiting their opponents to an average of 2.2 and 2.4 goals respectively in recent outings. Everton’s home record against Palace also leans towards lower-scoring affairs, with their last five encounters yielding a modest average of under 3 goals. Given their current form and recent scoring woes, it’s hard to envision a scenario where this match breaks out into a goal frenzy. Taking the under feels like a savvy move in this matchup.
Everton vs Crystal Palace: Both Teams To Score: No (+115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing As Everton prepares to host Crystal Palace, the stats paint a telling story of an underwhelming offensive display from both sides. Everton's recent home outings have seen them net just 1.4 goals per game while allowing an alarming average of 2.2 to their opponents. Crystal Palace, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, averaging a mere 1.2 goals but conceding 2.4 in their last five away matches. Both teams are finding it tough to convert chances, with both sides failing to register significant xG numbers lately. Everton has averaged 11.6 shots per game, but their quality in the final third is lacking, reflected in their low conversion rates. Given the trend of low-scoring affairs and defensive vulnerabilities, betting on "No" for both teams to score feels like a smart play in this matchup.
Everton vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace +0.75 Goal Handicap (-208)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing As Everton gears up to face Crystal Palace, the trends paint a compelling picture in favor of the visitors. Everton's home form has been lackluster, managing just two wins in their last five at Goodison Park, while their average of 1.4 goals scored is overshadowed by the 2.2 they concede. Meanwhile, Palace has struggled on the road but has the edge in head-to-head encounters, winning three of the last five against Everton. Crystal Palace's xG numbers are low, but they’ve managed to find the net more consistently than Everton, who are grappling with defensive lapses. With Palace needing a lift and Everton's home woes, backing Crystal Palace with a 0.75 handicap looks like a savvy move. Expect them to capitalize on Everton’s vulnerabilities and secure at least a draw, giving you a solid chance to cash in.
That is how our model reads Everton v Crystal Palace. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.