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Model picks & player props
Chelsea
VS
Burnley

Chelsea vs Burnley Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 6, 1:50PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Soccer
Turf Moor, Burnley
Outdoor
Sat 22 Nov 2025, 12:30PM
8
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Burnley Head to Head (3-Way) +550

The model graded 8 markets for Chelsea vs Burnley (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $650 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 22 Nov 2025, 12:30PM at Turf Moor.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win22.0%
The price says15.4%
Best price+550
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Head to Head (3-Way) Burnley Long-shot22% chance +550
Moneyline Long-shot22% chance —
Draw No Bet High89% chance —
Head to Head (3-Way) Long-shot24% chance —
Moneyline Long-shot24% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Soccer game on today's board →

Chelsea and Burnley last met on Sat 22 Nov 2025. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every Soccer game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Chelsea · $100 returned $116

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best Soccer market — 48 of 101 right (soccer draw no bet calls)
This bet type · last timeSep 5
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund @ TSG Hoffenheim
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $182
Our call on this game: 2 picks on tonight's board · logged before tip-offSee tonight's picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Head to Head (3-Way)
Burnley
+550
+ 7 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
BurnleyHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
BurnleyMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
ChelseaDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DrawHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DrawMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Chelsea

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Burnley

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chelsea vs Burnley: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChelsea @ BurnleyNo line posted
0-2-6past meetings (last 8)
Draw33%Home form2-7-11Away form8-5-7
past meetings, home wins0 / 8 home

In their last 8 meetings, Burnley have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 6; the model reads Burnley's win chance at 18% for this fixture. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Both Teams to ScoreChelsea @ BurnleyNo line posted
4 / 8past meetings, both scored
Burnley75%Chelsea50%
past meetings, both scored4 / 8 both scored

Both teams scored in 75% of Burnley's and 50% of Chelsea's recent matches. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Total GoalsChelsea @ BurnleyNo line posted
6 / 8past meetings, over 2.5
Home ov2.565%Away ov2.555%past meetings avg3.6
past meetings, over 2.56 / 8 over

The last 8 meetings averaged 3.6 goals, over 2.5 in 6 of them. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Chelsea @ Burnley — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for Chelsea at Burnley — 8 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

8
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 7 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
22 Nov 25 Draw No Bet Chelsea ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chelsea vs Burnley in the Soccer. The most recent game between them was Saturday 22 November 2025 at Turf Moor. The model has generated 8 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 20 meetings on record
Chelsea 13–1 across the last 20 meetings · 6 draws · these games average 3.3 goals (meetings on record since 2009)
DateGameScoreWinner
21 Feb 2026Burnley @ Chelsea1–1Draw
22 Nov 2025Chelsea @ Burnley0–2Chelsea
30 Mar 2024Burnley @ Chelsea2–2Draw
7 Oct 2023Chelsea @ Burnley1–4Chelsea
5 Mar 2022Chelsea @ Burnley0–4Chelsea
6 Nov 2021Burnley @ Chelsea1–1Draw
31 Jan 2021Burnley @ Chelsea2–0Chelsea
31 Oct 2020Chelsea @ Burnley0–3Chelsea
11 Jan 2020Burnley @ Chelsea3–0Chelsea
26 Oct 2019Chelsea @ Burnley2–4Chelsea

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 20 meetings on file.

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