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Model picks & player props
Chelsea
VS
Aston Villa

Chelsea vs Aston Villa Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 7, 12:49AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

Soccer
Villa Park, Birmingham
Outdoor
Wed 4 Mar 2026, 7:30PM
5
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
No Both Teams to Score +138

The model graded 5 markets for Chelsea vs Aston Villa (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $238 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 4 Mar 2026, 7:30PM at Villa Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win55.1%
The price says42.0%
Best price+138
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Both Teams to Score No Lean55% chance +138
Head to Head (3-Way) Long-shot39% chance —
Moneyline Long-shot39% chance —
Head to Head (3-Way) Lean42% chance —
Moneyline Lean42% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Soccer game on today's board →

Chelsea and Aston Villa last met on Wed 4 Mar 2026. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every Soccer game priced right now.

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This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Chelsea · $100 returned $245

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best Soccer market — 55 of 114 right (soccer draw no bet calls)
This bet type · last timeSep 6
Arsenal
Chelsea @ Arsenal
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $126
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Both Teams to Score
No
+138
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
NoBoth Teams to ScoreThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Aston VillaHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Aston VillaMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
ChelseaHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
ChelseaMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Chelsea

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Aston Villa

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chelsea vs Aston Villa: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChelsea @ Aston VillaNo line posted
3-1-4past meetings (last 8)
Home form11-5-4Away form8-5-7
past meetings, home wins3 / 8 home

In their last 8 meetings, Aston Villa have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 4; the model reads Aston Villa's win chance at 39% for this fixture. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Both Teams to ScoreChelsea @ Aston VillaNo line posted
59%both teams score %
3 / 8past meetings, both scored
Aston Vill60%Chelsea50%
past meetings, both scored3 / 8 both scored

Both teams scored in 60% of Aston Villa's and 50% of Chelsea's recent matches; our model makes both teams scoring 59% here. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Total GoalsChelsea @ Aston VillaNo line posted
5 / 8past meetings, over 2.5
Home ov2.565%Away ov2.555%past meetings avg2.8
past meetings, over 2.55 / 8 over

The last 8 meetings averaged 2.8 goals, over 2.5 in 5 of them. Lines reflect the most recent tracked fixture, not a live market.

Chelsea @ Aston Villa — what the model found

Our model graded 5 betting markets for Chelsea at Aston Villa — 5 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

5
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 5 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 4 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
04 Mar 26 Head to Head (3-Way) Chelsea ✓ HIT
04 Mar 26 Moneyline Chelsea ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chelsea vs Aston Villa in the Soccer. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 4 March 2026 at Villa Park. The model has generated 5 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 32 meetings on record
Chelsea 18–9 across the last 32 meetings · 5 draws · these games average 3.4 goals (meetings on record since 2007)
DateGameScoreWinner
4 Mar 2026Chelsea @ Aston Villa1–4Chelsea
27 Dec 2025Aston Villa @ Chelsea1–2Aston Villa
22 Feb 2025Chelsea @ Aston Villa2–1Aston Villa
1 Dec 2024Aston Villa @ Chelsea3–0Chelsea
27 Apr 2024Chelsea @ Aston Villa2–2Draw
24 Sep 2023Aston Villa @ Chelsea0–1Aston Villa
1 Apr 2023Aston Villa @ Chelsea0–2Aston Villa
16 Oct 2022Chelsea @ Aston Villa0–2Chelsea
26 Dec 2021Chelsea @ Aston Villa1–3Chelsea
11 Sep 2021Aston Villa @ Chelsea3–0Chelsea

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 32 meetings on file.

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