On Thursday 1 October 2026, Everton play Chelsea in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -175 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Everton vs Chelsea: Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap (-175)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton welcomes Chelsea, the stage is set for an intriguing battle. Everton's recent home form has been respectable, boasting two wins in their last five matches at Goodison Park, coupled with a solid average of 1.8 goals scored at home. Conversely, Chelsea's away struggles are evident, with just one victory in their last five away fixtures, and they've averaged only 1.2 goals per game on the road. What stands out is Everton's defensive resilience recently; they’ve allowed only 0.6 goals per match at home in their last five outings, suggesting a strong foundation against a Chelsea side that often falters in front of goal. With Everton's expected goals (xG) average holding steady despite fluctuating results, their ability to edge this contest becomes compelling. Given these recent trends, backing Everton to cover the 0.5 handicap feels like a savvy wager in what could be a tight encounter.

Everton vs Chelsea: Draw Moneyline (+275)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, the matchup is tinged with a sense of unpredictability. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Everton posting a respectable home record of 2-2-1 in their last five at Goodison, while Chelsea's away performances leave something to be desired, going 1-1-3 in their last five on the road. What stands out is the scoring output; Everton averages just 1.2 goals per game at home, while Chelsea's away tally barely scratches 1.2, suggesting a struggle to find the back of the net. With both sides' expected goals (xG) not translating into clear scoring chances, a stalemate feels likely. The historical head-to-head shows a recent trend of close encounters, further supporting the draw narrative. Given the odds and the teams' current trajectories, a draw seems like a shrewd play.

That is how our model reads Everton v Chelsea. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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