On Monday 28 September 2026, Everton play Chelsea in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -175 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Everton vs Chelsea: Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap (-175)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton prepares to host Chelsea on Saturday, there's a compelling case for backing the Toffees with a +0.5 handicap. In their last five home matches, Everton has shown resilience, pulling out two wins and managing an impressive 1.8 goals per game while conceding just 1.6. Their xG numbers indicate they're creating chances, averaging about 16 shots per game, which bodes well against a Chelsea side that’s been more vulnerable away, conceding 2 goals on average. While Chelsea has had a decent run lately, their inconsistency on the road—suffering from a shaky defense—could allow Everton to capitalize on home advantage. Historically, Everton has held their own against Chelsea, and with the crowd behind them, they could very well secure at least a draw, making that +0.5 line look enticing for bettors. This match might just be the perfect storm for Everton to shine.

Everton vs Chelsea: Draw Moneyline (+275)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton and Chelsea prepare to face off, the prospect of a draw feels increasingly plausible. Everton’s recent home form, with a 2-2-1 record, showcases a resilient side that’s tough to break down, conceding just 1.6 goals per game at Goodison Park. Surprisingly, Chelsea's recent away performances have been uneven, yielding a 1-1-3 record, and they’ve struggled to find the back of the net consistently, averaging only 1.2 goals in their last five away matches. Both teams have displayed a tendency to cancel each other out, evident in their last five encounters where Everton managed to hold Chelsea to draws on three occasions. With both sides averaging a low xG of zero in recent outings, expect a tightly contested match where a stalemate could very well be the most likely outcome. At 3.75, the value on the draw is too enticing to overlook.

That is how our model reads Everton v Chelsea. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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