On Monday 28 September 2026, Everton play Chelsea in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -175 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Everton vs Chelsea: Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap (-175)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, the tides seem to favor the Toffees, especially given their recent form at Goodison Park. They’ve secured two wins in their last five home matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals while conceding just 1.6. Their defense has tightened, evidenced by a solid xG of 0, indicating they’ve effectively stifled opponents’ chances. Chelsea, meanwhile, has struggled on the road, scoring only 1.2 goals per game away from home. With Everton’s defense limiting opponents to a mere 0.6 goals in their last five, the likelihood of Chelsea breaking through seems slim. Plus, Everton historically holds a slight edge in their recent encounters. With the home crowd behind them and Chelsea’s away woes, backing Everton with a 0.5 handicap looks promising. The stars are aligning for a solid showing from the Toffees.

Everton vs Chelsea: Draw Moneyline (+275)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Everton prepares to face Chelsea, the stage is set for a gripping encounter that may very well end in a stalemate. Both teams have shown recent inconsistency, with Everton managing a home record of 2-3-0, while Chelsea's away form stands at 2-1-2. Looking at their last five matchups, Everton has struggled to find the back of the net, averaging just 1.2 goals per game, while Chelsea's away scoring has also dipped, netting only 1.2 per match. Defensively, Everton is tight at home, conceding a mere 1.6 goals on average, which suggests they can hold Chelsea at bay. With both sides averaging low xG figures recently, the odds of a draw—priced attractively at 3.75—make sense. Given the stakes and their historical results against each other, a draw feels like the most plausible outcome in this evenly matched battle.

That is how our model reads Everton v Chelsea. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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