Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Sunday 04/05 (7-Leg) : High Probability Plays

As the Spurs roll into Denver, all eyes will be on Victor Wembanyama, the towering rookie sensation. However, it might be prudent to consider the under on his rebounds at 16.5. While he's been a beast on the boards, averaging 15.8 rebounds over his last five games, his performance dips when playing away, where he's pulled down just 14.2. Against the Nuggets, Wembanyama's historical average is slightly better at 15.4, but in Denver, that number drops to 14.7. With the Nuggets boasting one of the top rebounding defenses, they'll likely ensure he faces more resistance on the glass. With an impressive 17 out of his last 18 games hitting the under, and a staggering 18 of his last 20 away, the numbers suggest this could be a night where Wembanyama struggles to reach that lofty rebound count. Trust the data; the under is calling.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 27.5 Rebounds + Assists (-357)

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the San Antonio Spurs, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but betting on the under for his combined rebounds and assists at 27.5 could be the savvy play here. Jokic has been an absolute force, averaging 17 rebounds and nearly 14 assists over his last five games. However, he tends to dial it back at home against the Spurs, with his averages slipping to around 12 rebounds and just 8.8 assists in similar matchups.Moreover, Jokic's overall home hit rate stands impressively at 13 out of the last 15 games, signaling a calculated restraint in his contributions when the Nuggets are at home. With expected stat values hovering around 19.27, it seems the under is not just attainable, but likely. In a game where efficiency might trump volume, taking the under on Jokic feels like the smart move.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 12.5 Assists (-323)

As the Denver Nuggets prepare to host the San Antonio Spurs, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but perhaps not for the reasons you might expect. While he's been a dominant playmaker, averaging 13.6 assists over his last five games, his performance against the Spurs tells a different story. In their recent matchups, Jokic has only managed about 10.6 assists on average, and when playing at home against them, that number dips to 8.8. With the Spurs likely focusing their defensive efforts on limiting his distribution, it's reasonable to expect a drop in his assist numbers. The Nuggets have other scoring options, which could further dilute Jokic's assist opportunities. Given the statistical trends and the defensive schemes we anticipate, betting on Jokic to fall under 12.5 assists seems like a savvy play.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 16.5 Rebounds (-588)

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the San Antonio Spurs, all eyes should be on Nikola Jokic, but perhaps not in the way you might expect. While Jokic is a rebounding machine, averaging 17 boards in his last five games, his performance at home tells a different story. He's pulled down just 14.6 rebounds per game in front of the Denver crowd recently, and against the Spurs, he's typically recorded around 12 rebounds when they visit. With an impressive 19 out of the last 20 home games hitting the under on this line, it's hard to overlook the statistical trends. The Nuggets are also known for their ball movement and scoring efficiency, which can limit Jokic's rebounding opportunities. Given these compelling numbers, betting on Jokic to stay under 16.5 rebounds seems like a wise play for this matchup.

Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 36.5 Points + Assists (-125)

As the Lakers head to Dallas, the spotlight will be on Austin Reaves, but betting on him to hit the over on 36.5 points plus assists seems risky. He's been solid lately, averaging 20.8 points and 5.4 assists over his last five games, but the numbers tell a different story when he's on the road. His away averages drop to 21.6 points and 4.6 assists, which show he struggles against tough defenses like the Mavericks. In fact, when facing Dallas, his production dips even more-he's only averaged 13 points and 2.8 assists in recent away matchups. With a perfect hit rate on unders in his last 10 games, it's clear he's been held in check. Given the Mavericks' defensive prowess, taking the under on Reaves feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

Austin Reaves (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106)

As the Lakers gear up to face the Mavericks, all eyes will be on Austin Reaves-and for good reason. However, I'm leaning toward the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 40.5. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 20.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.4 assists. When you break it down further, his away performances tell an even clearer story; he's clocking in at 21.6 points but struggles with rebounds and assists, averaging just 3.8 and 4.6, respectively.Against the Mavericks, his numbers dip, particularly on the road, where he's tallying only 13 points and 3.4 rebounds. With a perfect hit rate in his last 13 away games, it's tempting to think he'll keep it going. But against a solid Dallas defense, it's hard to see him breaking through that 40.5 mark tonight.