Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Monday 03/23 (7-Leg) : Beat the Books

When it comes to Deni Avdija's matchup against the Denver Nuggets, the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists feels like the smart play. Sure, he's been productive lately, averaging 23.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists over his last five games, but those numbers take a dive on the road. Away from home, his averages drop to just 20 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. This trend becomes even more pronounced against the Nuggets, where Avdija has managed a mere 9.6 points and 4.8 rebounds in his last away game against them. With an impressive overall hit rate of 18 out of 19 on the under, it's clear he struggles against tough defenses, especially in hostile arenas. Given the stakes and the numbers, betting the under on Avdija's 47.5 seems like a winning strategy.

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 39.5 Points + Rebounds (-312)

As Deni Avdija steps onto the court against the Denver Nuggets, the odds seem stacked against him reaching that lofty 39.5 mark in points plus rebounds. Avdija has been steady, averaging 23.4 points and 7.4 rebounds over his last five games, but those numbers dip significantly when he's on the road-20 points and just 6.2 rebounds. Against the Nuggets, he's managed only 20.8 points and 6.2 rebounds in their last five matchups, but away from home, that total drops to 9.6 points and 4.8 rebounds. With a remarkable hit rate of 18 out of his last 19 games hitting under this line, it's clear that he struggles when facing tough defenses like Denver's. Given the circumstances, betting on the under seems like a smart play for this matchup.

Precious Achiuwa (Sacramento Kings) Under 11.5 Rebounds (-476)

When looking at Precious Achiuwa's rebounding numbers, the case for targeting the under on 11.5 becomes clearer. At home, he's averaged just 8 boards over his last five games, a stark contrast to what the line suggests. Facing the Brooklyn Nets, his recent history shows he grabs only about 5.2 rebounds per game, well short of that threshold. Digging deeper, Achiuwa has been efficient at home, hitting the under in all six of his last home appearances, and he's been a solid performer in the last three games overall, but those totals still don't reflect the 11.5 we're looking at. With the Kings' strong defensive presence limiting rebounding opportunities, it's tough to see him clearing that mark. Given the numbers and his recent form, the under feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 30.5 Points (-250)

As the Portland Trail Blazers face off against the Denver Nuggets, it's hard not to target Deni Avdija for an Under on his points total set at 30.5. Despite showing flashes of talent, Avdija has been a bit inconsistent lately, averaging just 20 points per game on the road in his last five outings. Against the Nuggets, his numbers dip even further; he's managed a mere 9.6 points in their last matchups away from home. Looking at the big picture, Avdija has hit the Under in 18 of his last 19 games, a staggering 95% hit rate. The Nuggets' defense is no joke, and with Avdija's expected stat value sitting at just 22.23, the likelihood of him surpassing that 30.5 mark seems slim. With all signs pointing toward a low-scoring night for the young forward, betting on the Under feels like a savvy play.

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 37.5 Points + Assists (-244)

In the upcoming matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Portland Trail Blazers, Deni Avdija presents an intriguing under bet at 37.5 points and assists. While he's demonstrated some promise, recent numbers suggest a dip in performance, especially on the road. Over his last five away games, he's averaging just 20 points and 4.8 assists, far below our threshold. Against the Nuggets, Avdija's numbers aren't much better, with an average of 9.6 points and 3.2 assists when playing on their turf. The trend is even more striking when you consider that he hasn't hit the 37.5 mark in his last 16 games, maintaining a perfect under record. With the Nuggets' defensive prowess limiting scoring opportunities, it's hard to envision Avdija breaking through for a high-output game. Targeting the under seems like a smart play here.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 11.5 Assists (-222)

As the Denver Nuggets prepare to host the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but perhaps not in the way you'd expect. Despite his triple-double prowess, the big man has shown a tendency to fall short of the 11.5 assists mark lately. Averaging just 10.8 assists at home and 9.4 against the Blazers in their previous matchups, Jokic may find himself distributing the ball a bit less in this game. With a solid home hit rate of 8 out of 11 games under this line, it's clear that he often doesn't need to go into overdrive when playing in front of a familiar crowd. Plus, with an expected stat value of around 9.21, this bet on the under seems quite appealing. Jokic's assists will likely be spread around as he balances scoring with playmaking, making the under a smart play in this matchup.