Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Friday 04/17 (5-Leg) Featuring Moussa Diabate!: Calculated Risk, High Reward

As the Warriors gear up to face the Suns, targeting Draymond Green for under 7.5 assists feels like the savvy play. Despite his reputation as an elite facilitator, he's averaged just 6.6 assists in away games recently, and his numbers dip even further against Phoenix, where he's managed only 3.4 assists in their last few matchups.While Green has hit the over in three of his last four games, it's crucial to consider the context. The Suns' defense is particularly adept at limiting playmaking, and with Green's expected stat value sitting at 4.6, it's hard to envision him surpassing that threshold. With a strong away hit rate of 13 out of his last 17 games, the numbers suggest tonight could be a night where he focuses more on defense than playmaking. Betting the under feels like a solid, data-driven decision as the Warriors hit the road in this pivotal matchup.

Gui Santos (Golden State Warriors) Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-213)

As the Golden State Warriors gear up to face the Phoenix Suns, it's worth looking at Gui Santos and considering a bet on him to finish under 20.5 points and rebounds. Santos has been solid, averaging 14.8 points and 4.8 rebounds over his last five games, but his away performances tell a different story. On the road, he's generating just 11.8 points and 6.4 rebounds, which is well below our target. When facing the Suns, Santos has struggled even more, averaging only 7.2 points against them, with an even lower 8.2 on the road. His recent hit rate shows that he's only exceeded this mark in three of his last four games. Given the Suns' strong defensive unit and Santos' inconsistency away from home, betting the under seems like a savvy move with a 68% implied probability on our side.

Desmond Bane (Orlando Magic) Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-227)

As the Orlando Magic face the Charlotte Hornets this Friday, all eyes will be on Desmond Bane, but a closer look at his recent form suggests a different narrative. While he's been a solid contributor, averaging 20.2 points at home over the last five games, his overall performance has dipped, hitting just 17.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 3 assists recently. Against the Hornets, Bane tends to fall short of expectations, managing only 16.2 points per game at home versus them. With an overall hit rate of just 4 out of 5 for the combined points, rebounds, and assists, and a home hit rate of 3 out of 3, it's clear he may struggle to exceed 30.5 in this matchup. Given these trends, betting the under seems like a smart play as Bane faces a well-prepared Charlotte defense.

Gui Santos (Golden State Warriors) Under 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-208)

As the Golden State Warriors head to Phoenix, all eyes will be on Gui Santos, but bettors should consider the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 23.5. While Santos has shown promise, his recent performances paint a different picture, particularly away from home. In his last five games, he's averaging just 14.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, well below the threshold we're targeting. When playing on the road, those numbers dip further to 11.8 points and 6.4 rebounds, highlighting a struggle to find consistency. Against the Suns, he's averaged a mere 7.2 points in their last matchups, and historically, his away averages against Phoenix aren't encouraging. With a robust hit rate of just 3 out of 4 in the last four games, the under looks appealing. Expect Santos to be contained once again in a challenging matchup.