As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Milwaukee Brewers on July 5, all eyes should be on Jake Bauers and his propensity to draw walks. Despite his reputation as a disciplined hitter, recent trends suggest he might struggle to get on base via the free pass today. The Brewers' pitching staff has been particularly effective lately, limiting batters to a mere 3.2 walks per game, which bodes well for their chances to keep Bauers in check.
Moreover, Bauers has only walked once in his last ten games, showcasing a more aggressive approach at the plate. With the Diamondbacks' offensive strategy leaning towards contact rather than patience, it’s hard to see him drawing that elusive walk. Given these factors, banking on Bauers to stay under 0.5 walks today seems like a smart move. The odds favor the under, and with a solid model prediction backing it up, this bet is worth a closer look.
Corbin Carroll (NA) Under 1.5 Runs Scored (-455)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Diamondbacks host the Brewers, the spotlight is on Corbin Carroll, but the data suggests a quieter day at the plate for the young star. Carroll has shown flashes of brilliance, yet he’s recently hit a rough patch, posting a mere .220 batting average over the last two weeks. The Brewers' pitching staff has been a formidable challenge, especially with their starters holding opponents to a .230 average.
Moreover, the matchup favors Milwaukee's ace, who has been stellar at limiting runs. With the Diamondbacks struggling to capitalize on scoring opportunities, it’s telling that Carroll has only crossed the plate once in his last five games. While he has immense potential, the current trends lean heavily towards him staying under the 1.5 runs today. Given these factors, betting on Carroll to notch under 1.5 runs scored feels like the smart play.
Garrett Mitchell (NA) Under 0.5 Walks (-526)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Diamondbacks host the Brewers, all eyes will be on Garrett Mitchell, particularly when it comes to drawing walks. Over recent games, Mitchell has struggled to find his footing at the plate, managing only a handful of walks throughout the season. The Diamondbacks' pitching staff has been especially adept at limiting free passes, boasting a solid walk rate against left-handed batters, which plays directly into Mitchell's struggles.
Moreover, with the way Arizona's pitchers are firing on all cylinders, there's a strong likelihood that Mitchell will be swinging more than waiting for that elusive base on balls. The numbers back it up: with an implied probability of 84%, the under on 0.5 walks seems almost a foregone conclusion. Expect Mitchell to battle at the plate but fall short of drawing that walk today, making the under a compelling play in this matchup.
Christian Yelich (MIL) Under 1.5 Hits (-417)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
In Sunday’s matchup between the Diamondbacks and Brewers, backing Christian Yelich to stay under 1.5 hits feels like a prudent move. Lately, Yelich has struggled to find consistency at the plate, batting just .220 in his last 10 games. The Diamondbacks' pitching staff, particularly their ace, has been formidable at home, boasting a stellar WHIP under 1.20, making hits hard to come by.
Moreover, when facing right-handed pitchers, Yelich's numbers dip significantly, and with Arizona's righty on the mound, this trend could continue. With the Brewers also struggling to score runs away from home, it shapes up to be a low-scoring affair. Given the odds of Yelich finishing on the wrong side of 1.5 hits are significantly favorable, this is a bet you can feel confident about as we watch the game unfold.
Joey Ortiz (NA) Under 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-526)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Diamondbacks host the Brewers on July 5, the focus turns to Joey Ortiz’s performance. While Ortiz has shown flashes of talent, it's important to consider the current dynamics of this matchup. Ortiz faces a Brewers pitching staff that has been on fire lately, boasting a collective ERA under 3.00 over their last few outings. Milwaukee's starters have a knack for keeping hitters in check, particularly against right-handed batters like Ortiz.
Moreover, Ortiz has struggled to find consistent success, with his recent games revealing a slight dip in his contact rate. Against a disciplined Brewers bullpen that thrives on limiting runs, the odds are stacked against him. With an implied probability of 84% favoring the under on 2.5 hits, runs, and RBIs, it seems wise to bank on Ortiz having a quiet day at the plate, especially with the stakes running high in this pivotal contest.
Brice Turang (MIL) Under 1.5 Runs Scored (-714)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
As the Diamondbacks host the Brewers, all eyes will be on Brice Turang, but betting on him to score over 1.5 runs feels like a stretch. The young Brewers infielder has been solid but hasn’t found consistent success against right-handed pitching, which is what he'll face today.
Looking at Turang’s recent outings, he’s managed just a handful of runs in his last ten games, struggling to get on base consistently. In contrast, Arizona’s pitching staff has been particularly tough at home, boasting a solid ERA that could further stifle his opportunities.
Moreover, the Brewers are in a bit of a slump, averaging fewer runs per game lately, which only amplifies the challenge for Turang to cross home plate. With these trends in mind, the under on his runs scored looks like a smart play in this matchup.