Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Riley Thilthorpe is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +4.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 10:03AM UTC
AFL

Riley Thilthorpe

Adelaide Crows

+4.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -714 (1.14)
+4.5% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
92.3%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+4.5%
Predicted Value
1.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals92.3%87.7%1.08+4.5%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Riley Thilthorpe is our man for the 'Over 0.5 Goals' prop in the Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows clash. With an average of 1.2 goals per game in his last five away matches, he's been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks. His recent form also shows a solid 33.3% goal accuracy and 2.8 shots at goal per game, indicating he's not shy about having a crack when the opportunity arises. Against the Swans, he's been even more prolific, notching 1.7 goals on average in their last five encounters. With a current away hit streak of 2 and an impressive away hit rate of 10/11, Thilthorpe seems primed to snag a goal or two in this matchup. Bet on him to make an impact in a high-scoring affair at the SCG.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
2.2avg goals L5
Home1.6vs Richmond2Season best3
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%
Game log vs line (O 2.5)avg 1.6 · hi 3 · lo 0
1002223213

Riley Thilthorpe has gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2.2 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Goals 1.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Riley Thilthorpe is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.5% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.