Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-500)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Thilthorpe is about as reliable as it gets for this line right now. He's hit 1+ goals in all five of his last five away games, averaging 2.6 goals in that split — well clear of this 0.5 threshold. The model projects 1.9 goals, sitting 3.4% above the implied probability baked into the $1.20 price, which reflects an 83.3% chance. That edge is modest but real, and the underlying numbers back it hard.
What makes this compelling is the volume he's generating away from home: 4.4 shots at goal and 3.6 marks inside 50 per game over his last five away fixtures. Even with his overall goal accuracy dipping to 46.2%, that shot volume almost guarantees he'll convert at least one. The Brisbane matchup is trickier — his L5 record against the Lions averages just 1.2 goals — but the away-game form and shot creation make this a legitimate edge worth taking.