Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Riley Thilthorpe is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 53 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 53%, implied 52%, edge +7.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 1:56PM UTC
AFL
Riley Thilthorpe
Adelaide Crows
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 1.5
-106 (1.94) · $100→$194
+7.4% Edge
Adelaide Crows
@
Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 14 Aug, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
59 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 58.9% · the book's price implies 51.5% · gap +7.4%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 58.9% | 53.0% | 51.5% | 1.89 | +7.4% |
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Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows) Over 1.5 Goals (-106)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Thilthorpe is shaping as a genuine threat to kick multiple goals at Optus Stadium, and the model backs it up. The projection sits at 1.9 goals against a line of 1.5, generating a 7.4% edge over the 51.5% implied probability baked into the $1.94 price — that's a meaningful gap worth acting on.
The away-game data is the real clincher here. Over his last five road trips, Thilthorpe is averaging 2.2 goals on 3.8 shots at goal, with 3.4 marks inside 50 and a 43.9% goal accuracy — a profile that consistently clears this line. He's hit the over in three of his last four away games and is riding a two-game away hit streak. His 3.0-goal average in away games specifically against Fremantle adds further weight. The volume of marks inside 50 suggests he'll get his opportunities — it's then a matter of converting at his usual clip.
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Season averages (2024)
Riley Thilthorpe averaged 11.1 disposals, 2.1 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Riley Thilthorpe recorded 16 disposals and 3 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 24 Aug 24 | Sydney Swans | 16 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 11 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Western Bulldogs | 14 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 14 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 19 Jul 24 | Essendon | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Jul 24 | St Kilda | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Aug 23 | West Coast Eagles | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 Aug 23 | Sydney Swans | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 Aug 23 | Brisbane Lions | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Riley Thilthorpe is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.4% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 14 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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