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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Riley Thilthorpe is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +6.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:06AM UTC
AFL

Riley Thilthorpe

Adelaide Crows

+6.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17)
+6.8% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
92.3%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+6.8%
Predicted Value
1.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals92.3%85.5%1.08+6.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the scoreboard, Riley Thilthorpe stands out as a prime candidate for the Over 0.5 goals marker against the Sydney Swans. In his last five away games, Thilthorpe has been a consistent threat, boasting an average of 1.2 goals per game. His goal accuracy may sit at 33.3%, but his ability to get shots on goal, with an average of 2.8 per game, suggests he's always in the mix. Moreover, his recent form against the Swans has seen him bagging an average of 1.7 goals in their encounters. With a track record of hitting the scoreboard and a solid hit rate, backing Thilthorpe to snag at least one goal in this clash looks like a smart play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Sydney SwansO 0.5 -714+4.5% edge
80%hit L10 O 0.5
1avg goals L5
Away1.2vs Sydney Swans1.3Season best3
O 0.580%
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)8 / 10 hit
1002223213

Riley Thilthorpe has gone over 0.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 3). Current line: Over 0.5 at -714, model edge +4.5%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Goals 1.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats Goals 1.5 Over -137 ✗ MISS
26 Mar 26 Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats Goals Pending
20 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Goals Pending
20 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Goals Pending

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About This Player

Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Riley Thilthorpe is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.8% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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