Francis Evans (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-286)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Evans has been finding the big sticks consistently enough to make this line look thin. His L5 away games average sits at exactly 1.0 goal per game, and he's converting at 36.7% on roughly 2 shots at goal per away outing — enough volume to clear 0.5 with regularity. That away hit rate of 3/4 over the last four games backs it up, and his overall current streak of three straight games with a goal adds further confidence to the model's projection of 1.1 goals against a line of just 0.5. The 1.8% model edge is modest but real, and the implied probability of 74.1% at $1.35 feels a touch short of where Evans' form actually sits. The one flag is a flat L5 record against the Bulldogs specifically, so this isn't a slam dunk — but the away form and shot volume make it a legitimate edge worth taking.

Rhylee West (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Rhylee West to kick at least one goal at Marvel Stadium is a bet the model is firmly behind, projecting 1.2 goals against a line of just 0.5 — a 9.1% edge over the implied probability of 66.2% baked into the $1.51 price. The case gets stronger when you dig into his home numbers. Over his last seven home games West has cleared this line in five of them, and his overall hit rate of 10 from 13 across the last 13 matches is the kind of consistency that justifies confidence. His L5 home shot-at-goal average sits at 0.8 with a 60% accuracy rate, meaning when he gets his opportunities inside 50 he converts at a solid clip. The matchup against Carlton is also historically kind — he's averaged 4 goals in his last five home clashes against the Blues. A reliable edge worth backing.

Arthur Jones (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-161)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Arthur Jones is a strong play to kick at least one goal at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, with the model projecting 1.3 goals against a line of just 0.5 — a 12.4% edge over the implied probability of 61.7%. The key driver here is his home form, which is noticeably cleaner than his overall numbers. Over his last five home games, Jones is averaging 1.0 goals per game, 2.0 shots at goal, and a 51.7% goal accuracy — that's a sharp conversion rate for a forward operating inside 50 at roughly 1.8 entries per game. His home hit rate over the last nine games is a remarkable 8/9 for this line. The one soft spot is his L5 record against Carlton specifically, averaging just 0.5 goals, but the home ground advantage and that conversion efficiency give the model confidence. At $1.62, there's genuine value here worth taking.

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