Rhylee West (Western Bulldogs) Under 16.5 Disposals (-120)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Rhylee West's away form makes this under look genuinely attractive. His L5 away games average sits at just 11.4 disposals, and specifically against Adelaide he's averaging 9.5 away — both figures sitting well clear of the 16.5 line. The model projects 13.2 disposals with a 19.8% edge over the implied probability of 54.6%, which is a meaningful gap worth acting on.
The underlying numbers reinforce the read. Away from home, West's disposal efficiency drops sharply to 57.7% compared to 67.4% overall, his handball output falls to 4.6 and his metres gained dips to 146.8 — all pointing to a quieter, less involved role on the road. Crucially, he's gone under this line in six of his last seven away games, a hit rate that's hard to ignore. At $1.83, the market hasn't fully priced in how much his output shrinks when he travels.