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The latest Bet Better model pick for Arthur Jones is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +2.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:49AM UTC
AFL

Arthur Jones

Western Bulldogs

+2.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
+2.5% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 11°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
74.5%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+2.5%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals74.5%71.9%1.34+2.5%

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AI Analysis

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Arthur Jones (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jones has been on a goal-scoring tear, bagging an impressive average of 1.4 goals in his last five home games. His accuracy inside 50 has been stellar at 59.7%, and he's been getting plenty of opportunities with an average of 3 shots at goal per game. Facing North Melbourne, against whom he has a decent history, Jones is poised to continue his scoring form. With a current 8-game streak of hitting the scoreboard at home and a remarkable 100% hit rate in his last 8 games, Jones is primed to split the middle at least once in this matchup. The stats point to Jones being a reliable bet to snag a goal, making the Over 0.5 goals prop on Arthur Jones a compelling choice for this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.5avg goals recent
Season best2
Goals last 10avg 0.5 · hi 2 · lo 0
1210000001

Arthur Jones has a goals high of 2 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 0.5 Over -159 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Goals Pending
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Goals Pending

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About This Player

Arthur Jones (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Arthur Jones is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.5% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 6 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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