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AFL

Arthur Jones

Western Bulldogs

Value call

Arthur Jones (Western Bulldogs) has one live pick today: over 0.5 goals that pays $141 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
62 in 100
Predicted
1.3 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 62.0% · before adjusting for past results 74.1% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap -8.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 7:40 PM AEST
Arthur Jones
over 0.5 goals
Goals Over 0.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
Value call
HIGHWins about 62 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.10 Odds-244
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Arthur Jones is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 62%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 23, 12:25AM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 11°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals74.1%62.0%70.9%1.61+3.2%

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AI Analysis

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Arthur Jones (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Arthur Jones' recent form, it's clear he's been a key contributor in front of goal, especially when playing at home. Over his last five home games, he's been averaging 1 goal per game, which is exactly what we need to hit the Over 0.5 mark in this matchup against Collingwood. Jones has been getting involved in the attacking plays, with an average of 3.4 score involvements and 2.6 shots at goal per game. This indicates he's not just a bystander but actively seeking opportunities to snag a goal. Moreover, his recent hit rates are impressive, boasting a 9/10 hit rate in home games and an overall hit rate of 11/13. With his consistent scoring and strong involvement in creating scoring opportunities, backing Jones to kick Over 0.5 goals against Collingwood seems like a solid bet for this upcoming clash at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs GWS GIANTS), Arthur Jones recorded 8 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS8140
13 Aug 23Hawthorn3013
4 Aug 23Richmond4010
9 Jun 23Port Adelaide0006
3 Jun 23Geelong Cats7022
27 May 23Gold Coast SUNS13024
20 May 23Adelaide Crows6003
13 May 23Carlton14145
6 May 23GWS GIANTS12212
29 Apr 23Hawthorn12131
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Goals — — — Pending
25 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Western Bulldogs Goals — — — Pending
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Arthur Jones (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Arthur Jones is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.2% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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