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The latest Bet Better model pick for Rory Lobb is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 71%, implied 80%, edge +3.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 7:48AM UTC
AFL

Rory Lobb

Western Bulldogs

+3.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+3.8% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
84 in 100
Predicted
4.6 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 83.8% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +3.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks83.8%71.2%80.0%1.40+3.8%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Rory Lobb (Western Bulldogs) Over 2.5 player_marks_over (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

As we gear up for the clash between the Western Bulldogs and the Collingwood Magpies, all eyes are on Rory Lobb to make a mark, quite literally. Lobb, stationed at home turf, has been a towering force in recent games, averaging 5 marks and 1.4 contested marks in his last 5 home appearances. Facing off against Collingwood, Lobb has historically snagged an average of 3.4 marks and 3.2 marks when playing at home against them. With such strong stats in his favor, it's no surprise the model predicts Lobb to hit 4.6 marks this game. The Over 2.5 marks line seems well within reach for this aerial specialist, making it a lucrative proposition for punters looking to back Lobb to shine bright under the Friday night lights at the iconic MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Season averages (2024)

Rory Lobb averaged 13.6 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.4 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

13.6
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.4
Marks
2.1
Tackles

Home / away and opponent splits

Rory Lobb is averaging 10.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

10.2
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Rory Lobb recorded 13 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn13072
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS10032
18 Aug 24North Melbourne13055
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows16081
2 Aug 24Melbourne20040
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans190101
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats21093
13 Jul 24Carlton10071
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide14063
29 Jun 24North Melbourne16082
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks 2.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 10.5 Over -120 ✗ MISS
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 9.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Rory Lobb (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Rory Lobb is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.8% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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