Today's Ligue 1 Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds for ALL Games on Monday 09/21

As Troyes hosts Marseille, the odds heavily favor the away side, and for good reason. Troyes has struggled at home recently, managing just one win in their last five matches and conceding an average of over two goals per game in that span. Meanwhile, Marseille is in decent form, with two wins in their last five and a solid record against Troyes, having won three of their last four encounters. Despite both teams averaging low expected goals (xG), Marseille's attacking prowess shines through with 1.8 goals per game overall, compared to Troyes' struggle to find the net, averaging just one goal. The stats tell a clear story: Troyes' defensive frailties and Marseille's superior form suggest that betting on Marseille at -0.25 is a smart play. Expect the visitors to edge past a faltering Troyes side, making this handicap a promising market to explore.

Troyes vs Marseille: Marseille +0 Goal Handicap (-233)

As Troyes prepares to host Marseille, recent form paints a clear picture. Troyes has struggled at home, managing just one win over their last five, with a dismal scoring average of only one goal per game. In contrast, Marseille finds themselves in a much more favorable rhythm, amassing two wins in their last five matches away and scoring 1.8 goals on average. Their xG suggests they’re creating solid chances, tallying 16.2 shots per game with a respectable 6.2 on target, while Troyes' attack has been less than prolific. Moreover, head-to-head records lean heavily in Marseille’s favor, boasting three wins in their last five encounters. Given Troyes' inability to find the net consistently and Marseille's potent offense, betting on Marseille to cover the handicap looks promising. They have what it takes to dominate this fixture and are primed for a commanding performance.

Troyes vs Marseille: Marseille Moneyline (-110)

As Troyes prepares to host Marseille, the odds seem heavily stacked in favor of the visitors. Troyes’ home form has been a struggle, with just one win in their last five outings and a troubling trend of conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game at home. Meanwhile, Marseille has found some rhythm, boasting two wins in their last five and a solid away performance that includes a potent 1.8 goals per match. Troyes’ xG numbers reveal a concerning trend: their average sits at a dismal 0, showing they’re not creating chances, while Marseille's attack remains more potent. Given the historical context, with Marseille winning three of their last five encounters against Troyes, it’s hard to ignore the momentum and quality the visitors bring. Backing Marseille feels like the smart move here, especially considering Troyes' recent struggles to find the net.

Troyes vs Marseille: Marseille Moneyline (-110)

As Troyes prepares to host Marseille, the recent form of both teams paints a telling picture. Troyes has struggled at home, managing just one win from their last five matches, and their average home scoring of one goal stands in stark contrast to the 2.2 they've conceded. With a dismal xG of zero in their last five home games, it’s clear they're lacking offensive bite. On the other side, Marseille has shown resilience, particularly on the road, with two wins in their last five outings and an average of 1.8 goals scored. Their attacking pressure is evident, with 16.2 shots per game and a solid xG against weaker defenses like Troyes. Historically, Marseille has dominated this matchup, winning three of their last five encounters. Given these trends, a bet on Marseille to secure the win feels like the right play here.

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC: New York City FC +0 Goal Handicap (+130)

As Atlanta United prepares to host New York City FC, the recent form of both teams is telling a compelling story. Atlanta's home record stands at a shaky 1-2-2 in their last five, and they’ve scored just 1.4 goals per game at home while conceding 1.8. Their expected goals (xG) have also been alarmingly low, indicating a struggle to create clear-cut chances. On the other hand, NYCFC has shown resilience despite an overall record of 1-3-1 in their last five outings. They average 1.4 goals per game on the road, with a solid defensive record yielding just 1 goal conceded per match. With Atlanta's inconsistency and NYCFC's ability to grind out results, backing NYCFC at a neutral handicap looks promising. They may just find a way to steal a point or even more in this matchup, making this a value bet worth considering.

That is the model's read on today's Ligue 1 card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.