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NHL
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Indoor
Wed 30 Sep 2026, 7:30 PM ET
New York Islanders
VS
Toronto Maple Leafs

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 22 markets for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs and backs New York Islanders hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $275.

20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
New York Islanders
New York Islanders 3-Way Moneyline
You bet$10 If it wins$27.50Best price+175
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win53.0%
The price says36.4%

The model graded 22 markets for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $275 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 30 Sep 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
3-Way Moneyline New York Islanders Lean53% chance +175
Total Goals Members only Lean50% chance Members
1st Period Total Goals Members only Lean58% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean54% chance Members
2nd Period Total Goals Members only High64% chance Members
Puck Lines Members only High76% chance Members
Spread Members only High76% chance Members
1st Period 3-Way Moneyline Members only Long-shot38% chance Members
1st Period Moneyline Members only Lean55% chance Members
Shots on Goal × 1 prop Highup to 65% Members
Saves × 1 prop Leanup to 57% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs last met on Wed 30 Sep 2026: Toronto Maple Leafs won 2-1. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every NHL game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
3-Way Moneyline
New York Islanders
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York Islanders3-Way MoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over1st Period Total GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York IslandersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over2nd Period Total GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York IslandersPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York IslandersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York Islanders1st Period 3-Way MoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York Islanders1st Period MoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York IslandersPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York Islanders3rd Period MoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over1st Period Total GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York Islanders3rd Period Puck LineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York Islanders1st Period Puck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York Islanders3rd Period 3-Way MoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Islanders

  • Alexander Romanov DOut
  • Mathew Barzal COut

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Chris Tanev DDay-to-day
  • John Tavares COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Cade Webber DOut
  • Elvis Merzlikins GOut
  • William Villeneuve DOut
Availability updated Oct 11, 12:12AM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 1 Oct

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Prediction & Picks

On September 30, 2026 our model has run New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is New York Islanders To Win (+110), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders: New York Islanders To Win (+110)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

The New York Islanders have been a bit more consistent lately, winning 29 of their games in regulation this season. They score about 2.79 goals each game, which is a little less than what the Maple Leafs are putting up, but they allow fewer shots on goal. This could help them keep the Maple Leafs from finding good chances to score. The game could go either way, so it's a risky bet. The Islanders and Maple Leafs are pretty evenly matched, making this one feel like a close contest. Still, with the Islanders having a better record in regulation, they might just pull off the win here at Scotiabank Arena.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders: Over 6.5 Total Goals (+114)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders are set to face off at Scotiabank Arena, and both teams have shown some interesting scoring trends this season. The Maple Leafs score just over three goals a game, which is right in line with the league average, while the Islanders are a bit behind, averaging under three goals. However, Toronto allows quite a few shots and goals, which could lead to some high-scoring chances for both sides. With both teams getting a fair amount of shots on goal, there's a real chance we could see more than 6.5 total goals in this matchup. Just keep in mind that the rating shows this is a close contest, and the Islanders have managed to win a good number of their games in regular time. It could go either way, but the potential for goals is there.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders: New York Islanders 3rd Period Moneyline (+102)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

The New York Islanders have been struggling to score lately, averaging less than three goals a game, while the Toronto Maple Leafs are just about even with their goals scored and allowed. The Islanders have shown they can win more games in regulation than the Maple Leafs, which could give them a slight boost. Given that this matchup is rated close to even, the Islanders winning the third period at these odds seems reasonable. The biggest risk is that both teams have been inconsistent, and it could go either way. Still, with the Islanders having a better record in regulation, they might just pull it off in the final frame.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders: Tony DeAngelo Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-115)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Tony DeAngelo has been solid on the ice lately, and he's got a good shot at getting more than 1.5 shots on goal against the New York Islanders. The Maple Leafs are playing at home in Scotiabank Arena, where they typically push the pace and create plenty of chances. DeAngelo has the opportunity to take advantage of the Islanders' defense, which allows a decent number of shots against. The risk here is that the Islanders are a tough team that can limit opportunities. Still, DeAngelo's recent form and the home advantage make this a promising pick. With the game being played at home and the chance to get involved in the action, he could definitely find a way to get those shots off.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders: Ilya Sorokin Under 24.5 Saves (-120)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

The Toronto Maple Leafs can put up some good scoring, but they also allow a lot of shots, which puts pressure on their goaltender. Ilya Sorokin from the New York Islanders has been solid, but the Leafs have only scored just over three goals per game this season. With the Leafs taking about 26 shots on goal each game, it looks like Sorokin might not see too many saves in this matchup. The bet here is for Sorokin to make under 24.5 saves. While the game could be close, Toronto's scoring against New York's defense might keep Sorokin's saves down. The game's tight, so it could easily go the other way if the Islanders manage to score early.

That is the full board for this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · Every pick for that day

Same game parlay

Written 1 Oct

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Prediction & Same Game Parlay picks

On Thursday 1 October 2026, Toronto Maple Leafs play New York Islanders in the NHL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Tony DeAngelo (New York Islanders) Over 0.5 Shots On Goal, priced at -500 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Tony DeAngelo (New York Islanders) Over 0.5 Shots On Goal (-500)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Toronto Maple Leafs play New York Islanders in the NHL. The bet we are looking at is Tony DeAngelo (New York Islanders) Over 0.5 Shots On Goal. It was priced at -500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Matias Maccelli (Toronto Maple Leafs) Under 0.5 Assists (-263)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Toronto Maple Leafs play New York Islanders in the NHL. The bet we are looking at is Matias Maccelli (Toronto Maple Leafs) Under 0.5 Assists. It was priced at -263 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Darren Raddysh (Toronto Maple Leafs) Over 1.5 Shots On Goal (-278)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Toronto Maple Leafs play New York Islanders in the NHL. The bet we are looking at is Darren Raddysh (Toronto Maple Leafs) Over 1.5 Shots On Goal. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Toronto Maple Leafs v New York Islanders. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · Every pick for that day

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Tony DeAngelo New York Islanders Shots on Goal
Ilya Sorokin New York Islanders Saves

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans New York IslandersNo line posted
2-3last 5 record
GF/G2.8GA/G2.0Shots/G25.4vs Leafs3-2

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineNew York Islanders +1.5No line posted
2-3last 5 record
GF/G2.8GA/G2.0Shots/G25.4vs Leafs3-2

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs — recent results

Toronto Maple Leafs have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Islanders have won 2 of their last 5.

Toronto Maple Leafs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–3COLAway
L3–4VGKAway
W5–4NSHHome
L2–3OTTHome
W2–1NYIHome
New York Islanders — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–5TBHome
W4–1CHIHome
L2–5NYRAway
W6–0NJHome
L1–2TORAway

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs — recent meetings

These two have met 4 times recently: Toronto Maple Leafs won 1, New York Islanders won 3.

DateToronto Maple LeafsNew York IslandersWinner
Sep 3021Toronto Maple Leafs
Apr 935New York Islanders
Mar 1713New York Islanders
Jan 434New York Islanders

Who’s out or in doubt

9 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Toronto Maple Leafs
PlayerStatus
Chris Tanev DDAY-TO-DAY
John Tavares COUT
Dakota Joshua COUT
Max Domi COUT
Cade Webber DOUT
Elvis Merzlikins GOUT
William Villeneuve DOUT
New York Islanders
PlayerStatus
Alexander Romanov DOUT
Mathew Barzal COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs — model preview

Toronto Maple Leafs v New York Islanders, 1 October 2026. Top of the list: William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) Over 0.5 Goals.

On September 30, 2026 our model has run New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is New York Islanders To Win (+110), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Islanders vs Leafs, or as Leafs vs Islanders. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 30 September 2026 at Scotiabank Arena. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs head-to-head record

Final scores · 4 meetings on record
New York Islanders 3–1 across the last 4 meetings · these games average 5.5 goals

Last meeting: Wed 30 Sep 2026, New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs: the Maple Leafs won 2-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
30 Sep 2026New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs2–1Toronto Maple Leafs
9 Apr 2026Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders5–3New York Islanders
17 Mar 2026New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs1–3New York Islanders
4 Jan 2026Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders4–3New York Islanders
Today's selected board

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