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Model picks & player props
New York Islanders
VS
Toronto Maple Leafs

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 1:07PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NHL
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Indoor
Tue 17 Mar 2026, 11:00PM
4
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Islanders (Moneyline)
For New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL), model win probability 68.6%, fair odds 1.46, book price -147, model edge +9.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Tue 17 Mar 2026, 11:00PM at Scotiabank Arena.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
New York Islanders
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York IslandersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Maple LeafsPuck LinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Islanders

  • Mathew Barzal COut
  • Semyon Varlamov GOut
  • Kyle Palmieri COut
  • Ryan Pulock DOut
  • Alexander Romanov DOut

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Zack MacEwen COut
  • Max Domi COut
  • Calle Jarnkrok COut
  • Dakota Joshua COut
Availability updated Jul 1, 10:34PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans New York IslandersNo line posted

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineToronto Maple Leafs +1.5No line posted

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs total-goals model lean and scoring trends (no settled over/under record yet).

New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs — model preview

<p>Latest NHL betting preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like William Nylander. Keywords: NHL predictions, NHL game picks, hockey betting preview, Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders stats and odds.</p>

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders : New York Islanders win (-147)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Ah, the thrill of the ice! The New York Islanders are heading to Toronto, and it's quite the story in the making. The Islanders, with an impressive 4-1 record against the Leafs in their last five matchups, are looking sharp. Their scoring has been consistent, netting an average of 1.2 goals per game, both overall and in their away games. Meanwhile, the Leafs have been struggling on home ice, with a less-than-stellar 1-4 record. They're conceding an average of 4.4 goals per game at home, a stark contrast to the Islanders' more modest 3.2. Add to that the Leafs' paltry average of 0.8 goals scored per home game, and it seems the Islanders have the edge here. So, the air in Toronto might just turn out to be Islander-friendly this Tuesday. Buckle up, folks; we're in for a thrilling ride!

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders : Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-217)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The upcoming clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Islanders is looking ripe for an engaging showdown. Despite their recent home record sitting at a 1-4, the Maple Leafs have an overall 4-1 dominance in their last five outings, indicating they've found their groove out on the ice. The Leafs have been stingy in allowing opponents to score, keeping the average goals against to just 2.8 across all games – a stat that should have the Islanders worried. Meanwhile, the Islanders, while holding a respectable 3-2 away record, have been struggling to find the back of the net, with a modest average of 1.2 goals in both their last five overall and away games. Their record against the Leafs doesn't inspire much confidence either, trailing 1-4. With the home advantage and a resurgent form, the Maple Leafs look set to handle the Islanders convincingly. It's not just a bet, it's a Leafs' night on

William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (+150)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Let's talk about an exciting option for the 'Anytime Goalscorer' market in the upcoming Leafs-Islanders showdown. Our guy? William Nylander. He's been lighting the lamp consistently, particularly at home. His average of 0.4 goals in his last five home appearances might not seem enormous, but combined with an average of 2.4 shots, it speaks volumes about his offensive presence. Even more interesting is his overall average, where we see him netting 0.6 goals from 2.6 shots across his last five games. His scoring streak may have been broken at home, but Nylander's hit rate of 2 out of the last 3 home games and an overall hit in his latest game indicate he's far from cold. So, in Nylander, we have a consistently threatening player with a knack for finding the back of the net. He's a solid bet to score anytime against the Islanders.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Scotiabank Arena. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

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