Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Guentzel is Over 0.5 on Shots on Goal.
On Shots on Goal, our numbers say this bet wins about 96 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 96%, implied 94%, edge +1.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 5:22PM UTC
NHL
Jake Guentzel
Tampa Bay Lightning
Latest Model Pick
Shots on Goal
Over 0.5
-1667 (1.06) · $100→$106
+1.2% Edge
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Detroit Red Wings
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, FUT · Indoor
Fri 17 Oct, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
96 in 100
Predicted
3.4 Shots on Goal
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 95.5% · the book's price implies 94.3% · gap +1.2%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Shots on Goal | 95.5% | — | 94.3% | 1.05 | +1.2% |
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Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay Lightning) Over 0.5 Shots On Goal (-1667)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
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Recent game log
Jake Guentzel has 5 goals and 7 assists (12 points) across his last 10 NHL games.
| Date | Opp | G | A | P | SOG | Hits | TOI |
|---|
| 13 Apr 26 | vs DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21:29 |
| 11 Apr 26 | @ BOS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:10 |
| 9 Apr 26 | @ MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 26:38 |
| 7 Apr 26 | @ OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:29 |
| 6 Apr 26 | @ BUF | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 24:54 |
| 4 Apr 26 | vs BOS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:05 |
| 2 Apr 26 | vs PIT | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 21:24 |
| 31 Mar 26 | vs MTL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21:06 |
| 29 Mar 26 | vs NSH | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18:46 |
| 28 Mar 26 | vs OTT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19:25 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay Lightning) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Guentzel is Over 0.5 on Shots on Goal. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings on Friday 17 October at Little Caesars Arena, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.
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