NHL
Jake Guentzel
Tampa Bay Lightning
Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay Lightning) has one live pick today: over 0.5 shots on goal that pays $106 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
How often this wins
96 in 100
Predicted
3.4 shots on goal
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 95.5% · the book's price implies 94.3% · gap +1.2%.
Latest Model PickFree
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Detroit Red Wings
Jake Guentzel
over 0.5 shots on goal
Shots on Goal
Over 0.5
-1667 (1.06) · $100→$106
Value call
HIGHWins about 96 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10
If it wins$10.60
Odds-1667
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Guentzel is Over 0.5 on Shots on Goal.
On Shots on Goal, our numbers say this bet wins about 96 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 96%, the price says 94%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 9:26AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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See every number
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Shots on Goal | 95.5% | — | 94.3% | 1.05 | +1.2% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 2/3 |
| Last 5 games | 2/5 |
| Last 10 games | 5/10 |
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Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay Lightning) Over 0.5 Shots On Goal (-1667)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
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Recent game log
Jake Guentzel has 3 goals and 6 assists (9 points) across his last 10 NHL games.
| Date | Opp | G | A | P | SOG | Hits | TOI |
|---|
| 8 Oct 26 | vs MIN | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21:12 |
| 5 Oct 26 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 21:20 |
| 3 Oct 26 | vs WSH | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18:18 |
| 1 Oct 26 | @ NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 24:02 |
| 13 Apr 26 | vs DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21:29 |
| 11 Apr 26 | @ BOS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:10 |
| 9 Apr 26 | @ MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 26:38 |
| 7 Apr 26 | @ OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:29 |
| 6 Apr 26 | @ BUF | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 24:54 |
| 4 Apr 26 | vs BOS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:05 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay Lightning) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Guentzel is Over 0.5 on Shots on Goal. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings on Friday 17 October at Little Caesars Arena, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.
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