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NHL

Jake Guentzel

Tampa Bay Lightning

Value call

Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay Lightning) has one live pick today: over 1.5 goals that pays $1,600 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
5 in 100
Predicted
0.4 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 4.9% · before adjusting for past results 7.5% · the book's price implies 6.3% · gap -1.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche
Ball Arena, Colorado, FUT · Indoor
Fri 23 Oct, 9:00 PM ET
Jake Guentzel
over 1.5 goals
Goals Over 1.5 +1500 (16.00) · $100→$1,600
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 5 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$160.00 Odds+1500
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Guentzel is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 5 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 5%, the price says 6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 1:39PM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals7.5%4.9%6.3%20.45+1.2%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Jake Guentzel Over 1.5 Goals (+1500)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Jake Guentzel has been finding the net lately, which is good news for fans hoping to see some goals. The Colorado Avalanche have won 5 of their last 10 games, and they're playing at home, where they usually bring a lot of energy. With the Tampa Bay Lightning winning 7 of their last 10, this matchup could be high-scoring, as both teams are in solid form. Betting on over 1.5 goals from Guentzel is a long shot, but it's worth considering. The Lightning have a strong offense, and Colorado's defense can sometimes struggle to block shots effectively. The biggest risk here is that both teams are evenly matched, which could lead to a more defensive game than expected. Still, if Guentzel stays hot, he could help push the total goals higher.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

Jake Guentzel has 6 goals and 4 assists (10 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
29 Oct 26vs WPG0116122:51
24 Oct 26@ UTA1012019:32
23 Oct 26@ COL2027322:12
20 Oct 26@ VGK0000018:16
17 Oct 26vs VAN1122019:06
15 Oct 26vs SEA0112019:24
13 Oct 26@ NYR0001218:44
10 Oct 26@ NYI2024119:29
8 Oct 26vs MIN0111121:12
5 Oct 26vs PHI0005021:20
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jake Guentzel (Tampa Bay Lightning) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Guentzel is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche on Friday 23 October at Ball Arena, Colorado. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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