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Model picks & player props
Miami Heat
VS
New York Knicks

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 1:08PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
10
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Knicks -7.5 (Point Spread)
For Miami Heat vs New York Knicks (NBA), model win probability 80.8%, fair odds 1.24, book price -110, model edge +28.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Point Spread
New York Knicks
-5
+ 9 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York KnicksPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York KnicksPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York KnicksPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami HeatPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami HeatMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami HeatPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Miami Heat

  • Trevor Keels GDay-to-day
  • Jahmir Young GDay-to-day
  • Ryan Conwell GDay-to-day
  • Myron Gardner FDay-to-day
  • Dru Smith GDay-to-day
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo FDay-to-day
  • Bam Adebayo CDay-to-day

New York Knicks

  • Mohamed Diawara FDay-to-day
  • Jalen Brunson GDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 18, 2:56AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Miami Heat vs New York Knicks: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsMiami Heat @ New York KnicksNo line posted

New York Knicks and Miami Heat combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadNew York Knicks spreadNo line posted

New York Knicks (season record) meet Miami Heat; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineNew York Knicks to winNo line posted

New York Knicks (season record) host or visit Miami Heat; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)New York Knicks totalNo line posted

New York Knicks averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Miami Heat; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Miami Heat totalNo line posted

Miami Heat averaged their season scoring ahead of facing New York Knicks; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks — model preview

<p>Deep dive into New York Knicks vs Miami Heat. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, NBA parlay odds.</p>

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat : Miami Heat Over 103.5 Team Total Points (-588)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on 'Miami Heat Over 103.5' is a good choice based on the Heat's recent scoring performance. The Heat's average score over their last five games is 121.4 points, which is significantly higher than the 103.5 point outcome. Even in away games, their score averages out at 107.8, still above the predicted total. Their recent overall record is strong at 4-1, suggesting they are in good form. While their away record is less impressive at 2-3, the Heat's scoring abilities seem to remain consistent regardless of the venue. Therefore, the likelihood of them surpassing 103.5 points in the upcoming game against the New York Knicks is high based on their recent performance.

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat : New York Knicks -7.5 (-110)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Knicks' scoring average over the last five games at home is 125.2, significantly higher than the Heat's away scoring average of 107.8. This indicates a strong offensive performance by the Knicks at home. When considering the defensive performance, the Knicks have allowed their opponents a score of 119.4 at home, which is higher than the Heat's 105.4 away. However, the Knicks' overall recent form against the Heat (3-1) shows they have been able to overcome the Heat in the majority of their recent encounters. With this edge in offensive performance and recent form, it is statistically reasonable to predict the Knicks to cover a -7.5 point spread against the Heat.

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat : Miami Heat win (+245)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The betting rationale for the Miami Heat is supported by their recent strong away performance and overall scoring ability. Looking at the L5 (last five games) records, the Heat have been performing better on the road with a 4-1 record compared to the Knicks' home record of 3-2. Despite the Knicks having a home advantage, the Heat's superior away game performance indicates that they are capable of securing a win. Additionally, the Heat's overall team score in the last five games is marginally lower than the Knicks, but their away score is significantly higher than the Knicks' home score. This shows that the Heat have been scoring well even in away games. Thus, these factors justify the bet on Miami Heat in the Moneyline market.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Miami Heat vs New York Knicks in the NBA. The model has generated 10 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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