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Model picks & player props
NBA
Kaseya Center, Miami
Indoor
Sat 28 Feb 2026, 3:30 PM ET
Houston Rockets
VS
Miami Heat

Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 16 markets for Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat and backs Houston Rockets -2.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $198.

6
Game markets graded
10
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Houston Rockets
to win by 3+ points
Houston Rockets -2.5 Spread
You bet$10 If it wins$19.80Best price-102
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win67.1%
The price says50.5%

The model graded 16 markets for Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat (NBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $198 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 28 Feb 2026, 3:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Houston Rockets -2.5 High67% chance -102
Team Total Members only High90% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean47% chance Members
Total Points Members only High97% chance Members
Points × 2 props Highup to 70% Members
Pts + Asts × 2 props Highup to 67% Members
Triple-Double × 1 prop Long-shotup to 16% Members
Double-Double × 1 prop Highup to 60% Members
Pts + Rebs + Asts × 2 props Highup to 98% Members
3-Pointers × 1 prop Highup to 75% Members
Rebounds × 1 prop Highup to 65% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Houston Rockets and Miami Heat last met on Sat 28 Feb 2026. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every NBA game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Houston Rockets
-2.5
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Houston RocketsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami HeatMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Rockets

  • Kevin Durant FDay-to-day

Miami Heat

  • Bam Adebayo CDay-to-day
  • Andrew Wiggins FDay-to-day
  • Klay Thompson GDay-to-day
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo FDay-to-day
  • Davion Mitchell GDay-to-day
  • Kylor Kelley CDay-to-day
  • Keshad Johnson FOut
  • Dru Smith GDay-to-day
Availability updated Oct 10, 10:35PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Josh Okogie Charlotte Hornets Points
Davion Mitchell Miami Heat Points
Amen Thompson Houston Rockets Pts + Asts
Alperen Sengun Houston Rockets Triple-Double
Alperen Sengun Houston Rockets Double-Double

+ 10 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsHouston Rockets @ Miami HeatNo line posted

Miami Heat and Houston Rockets combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadMiami Heat spreadNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) meet Houston Rockets; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineMiami Heat to winNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) host or visit Houston Rockets; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Miami Heat totalNo line posted

Miami Heat averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Houston Rockets; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Houston Rockets totalNo line posted

Houston Rockets averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Miami Heat; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Houston Rockets @ Miami Heat — what the model found

Our model graded 16 betting markets for Houston Rockets at Miami Heat — 6 on the game itself and 10 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded
10
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 16 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 15 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat — recent results

Miami Heat have won 3 of their last 5 games; Houston Rockets have won 3 of their last 5.

Miami Heat — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L124–125MINHome
W128–118NOHome
W129–105TORAway
L126–127CHAAway
W143–117ATLHome
Houston Rockets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W135–117DALAway
L78–98LALHome
W99–93LALAway
W115–96LALHome
L108–112LALHome

Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Miami Heat won 1, Houston Rockets won 1.

DateMiami HeatHouston RocketsWinner
Mar 22122123Houston Rockets
Feb 28115105Miami Heat

Who’s out or in doubt

9 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Heat
PlayerStatus
Bam Adebayo CDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Wiggins FDAY-TO-DAY
Klay Thompson GDAY-TO-DAY
Giannis Antetokounmpo FDAY-TO-DAY
Davion Mitchell GDAY-TO-DAY
Kylor Kelley CDAY-TO-DAY
Keshad Johnson FOUT
Dru Smith GDAY-TO-DAY
Houston Rockets
PlayerStatus
Kevin Durant FDAY-TO-DAY

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Houston Rockets @ Miami Heat — model preview

Unlock potential winning bets for Miami Heat playing Houston Rockets. Includes analysis on key players like Alperen Sengun. Analysis includes NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets stats and odds.

Alperen Sengun (Houston Rockets) Yes Double-Double (-120)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In the world of NBA betting, every game brings new opportunities to get ahead. For the upcoming Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets clash on February 28, the spotlight's on Alperen Sengun to hit a double-double. Sengun's recent performances on the road have been nothing short of impressive. He's been averaging a robust 23.8 points and 11.8 rebounds in his last five away games. His hit rate? A perfect 5 out of 5! Even when faced with the Heat, Sengun's stats have stayed consistent, with averages of 14 points and 9.3 rebounds away from home. It's clear that Sengun thrives under pressure, and this game, despite being on Miami's turf, is unlikely to be an exception. So, if you're looking for a solid bet, look no further. The signs all point to a 'Yes' for Sengun's double-double this Saturday.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat in the NBA. You may also see this matchup written as Rockets vs Heat, or as Heat vs Rockets. The most recent game between them was Saturday 28 February 2026 at Kaseya Center. The model has generated 6 game picks and 10 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Even at 1–1 across the last 2 meetings

Last meeting: Sun 22 Mar 2026, Miami Heat at Houston Rockets: the Rockets won 123-122.

DateGameScoreWinner
22 Mar 2026Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets123–122Houston Rockets
28 Feb 2026Houston Rockets @ Miami Heat115–105Miami Heat
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