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Bogdan Bogdanovic

Houston Rockets

Value call

Bogdan Bogdanovic (Houston Rockets) has one live pick today: under 4.5 points that pays $305 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
37 in 100
Predicted
5.1 points
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 37.1% · before adjusting for past results 61.5% · the book's price implies 32.8% · gap +4.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Houston Rockets @ Washington Wizards
Capital One Arena, Washington, DC · Indoor
Sun 15 Nov, 7:00 PM ET
Bogdan Bogdanovic
under 4.5 points
Points Under 4.5 +205 (3.05) · $100→$305
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 37 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$30.50 Odds+205
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bogdan Bogdanovic is Under 4.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 37 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 37%, the price says 33%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Nov 15, 4:02PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nba pts + rebs unders: +$4,002 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points61.5%37.1%32.8%2.70+28.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Washington Wizards vs Houston Rockets: Bogdan Bogdanovic Under 4.5 Points (+205)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Bogdan Bogdanovic has been a bit quiet lately, which makes this bet interesting. He's got a good chance to score under 4.5 points in this game against the Houston Rockets. The Wizards are not very good at forcing turnovers, which means the Rockets might have a lot of chances to score, leaving less for Bogdanovic. The most concrete risk here is that both teams allow a similar number of three-point attempts. If Bogdanovic gets hot from beyond the arc, he could easily go over. But considering his recent form and the matchup, betting under 4.5 points feels like a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Bogdan Bogdanovic's lines for Mon 16 Nov

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Points 4.5

Bogdan Bogdanovic's points line is 4.5.

Points 6.5

Bogdan Bogdanovic's points line is 6.5.

Bogdan Bogdanovic — 2024-25 season averages

Over 61 games in the 2024-25 season, Bogdan Bogdanovic averaged 10.3 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 24.0 minutes per game, shooting 42.2% from the field and 35.8% from three-point range.

10.3
PPG
2.9
RPG
2.6
APG
0.7
SPG
0.2
BPG
24.0
MPG
42.2%
FG%
35.8%
3P%

Bogdan Bogdanovic — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Bogdan Bogdanovic has played 17.8 minutes per game and started 0% of them.

17.8
MPG (L5)
9.0
PPG (L5)
0%
Started

Bogdan Bogdanovic — points hit rate

Bogdan Bogdanovic has scored over 12.5 points in 54% of 338 career games.

o11.560%
o12.554%
o15.536%
o20.517%

Bogdan Bogdanovic — home vs away scoring

At home Bogdan Bogdanovic averages 11.0 points per game; on the road, 9.8. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

11.0
PPG at home
9.8
PPG on the road

Bogdan Bogdanovic — scoring by opponent

Bogdan Bogdanovic scores most against the NO, averaging 18.3 points per game in that matchup.

18.3
NO
17.8
MIL
17.3
POR
16.7
OKC
16.6
IND
16.4
WSH

Bogdan Bogdanovic — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Bogdan Bogdanovic has averaged 6.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
3 May@ DEN181231
1 Mayvs DEN19630
29 Apr@ DEN231835
26 Aprvs DEN19742
24 Aprvs DEN10213
21 Apr@ DEN15012
19 Apr@ DEN12052
13 Apr@ GS16510
11 Apr@ SAC21222
9 Aprvs HOU291635
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Bogdan Bogdanovic (Houston Rockets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bogdan Bogdanovic is Under 4.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +28.7% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Rockets vs Washington Wizards on Sunday 15 November at Capital One Arena, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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