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The latest Bet Better model pick for Amen Thompson is Under 7.5 on Rebounds.
On the Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 63%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +12.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
NBA

Amen Thompson

Houston Rockets

+12.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 7.5 -102 (1.98)
+12.4% Edge
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA · Indoor
Sun 19 Apr, 12:30AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
62.9%
Implied Probability
50.5%
Model Edge
+12.4%
Predicted Value
6.7 Rebounds

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds62.9%—50.5%1.59+12.4%

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AI Analysis

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Amen Thompson (Houston Rockets) Under 7.5 Rebounds (-102)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Rockets take on the Lakers, all eyes will be on Amen Thompson, but betting the under on his rebounds at 7.5 holds promise. While Thompson's impressive average of 10.6 rebounds in his last five outings might catch your attention, context is key. On the road, he's averaging a more modest 7.8 rebounds, and against LA, he's been held to just 7 per game. The Lakers are notorious for tightening up the glass, particularly at home, making it tough for even the most athletic players to snag boards. With an expected stat value of around 6.7, it seems the odds are tilted in favor of the under. As Thompson faces this fierce matchup away from Houston, betting against him clearing that 7.5 mark could be a savvy move. Keep an eye on the boards, but don't expect Thompson to dominate them tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
4.1avg · last 10
L52.8Szn3.8Home4.0Away3.6Best11
2+82%
4+52%
6+17%
8+8%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 4.1 · hi 6 · lo 2
6666342323

Amen Thompson is averaging 4.1 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.8, best 11). He clears 4+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Blocks + Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
2.8avg · last 10
L53.2Szn2.6Home2.5Away2.8Best8
1+90%
2+66%
3+45%
4+26%
5+16%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 2.8 · hi 8 · lo 0
3522021832

Amen Thompson is averaging 2.8 blocks + steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.6, best 8). He clears 3+ in 45% of 2024-25 games.

Blocks2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
1.1avg · last 10
L51.0Szn1.2Home1.3Away1.2Best5
1+68%
2+34%
3+14%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.1 · hi 3 · lo 0
2211010301

Amen Thompson is averaging 1.1 blocks over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.2, best 5). He clears 1+ in 68% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
15.5avg · last 10
L518.2Szn14.1Home13.2Away14.9Best33
4+97%
9+81%
14+52%
19+27%
24+6%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 15.5 · hi 25 · lo 8
1614158111117251424

Amen Thompson is averaging 15.5 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 14.1, best 33). He clears 14+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
19.6avg · last 10
L521.0Szn17.9Home17.3Away18.4Best37
8+95%
13+75%
18+48%
23+26%
28+8%
Game log vs O 17.5avg 19.6 · hi 28 · lo 14
22202114141519281627

Amen Thompson is averaging 19.6 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 17.9, best 37). He clears 18+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
22.3avg · last 10
L525.8Szn22.1Home21.3Away22.8Best42
12+91%
17+75%
22+48%
27+32%
32+13%
Game log vs O 21.5avg 22.3 · hi 33 · lo 12
24202117121826312133

Amen Thompson is averaging 22.3 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 22.1, best 42). He clears 22+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
26.4avg · last 10
L528.6Szn25.9Home25.3Away26.4Best47
16+88%
21+69%
26+48%
31+35%
36+13%
Game log vs O 25.5avg 26.4 · hi 36 · lo 15
30262723152228342336

Amen Thompson is averaging 26.4 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.9, best 47). He clears 26+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
6.8avg · last 10
L57.6Szn8.0Home8.1Away7.9Best16
4+94%
6+79%
8+53%
10+31%
12+9%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 6.8 · hi 9 · lo 1
8669179679

Amen Thompson is averaging 6.8 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 8.0, best 16). He clears 8+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
10.9avg · last 10
L510.4Szn11.8Home12.1Away11.5Best24
6+94%
9+75%
12+52%
15+26%
18+10%
Game log vs O 11.5avg 10.9 · hi 15 · lo 4
14121215411119912

Amen Thompson is averaging 10.9 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 11.8, best 24). He clears 12+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Rebounds 7.5 Under -102 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Rebounds 10.5 Under -500 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Rebounds 9.5 Under -313 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Amen Thompson (Houston Rockets) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Amen Thompson is Under 7.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.4% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday 19 April at Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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