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Model picks & player props
NBA
Golden State Warriors
VS
Dallas Mavericks

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 9 markets for Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks and backs Dallas Mavericks hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $276.

3
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Dallas Mavericks
to win
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline
You bet$10 If it wins$27.60Best price+176
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win42.0%
The price says36.2%

The model graded 9 markets for Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks (NBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $276 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Dallas Mavericks Lean42% chance +176
Team Total Members only High93% chance Members
Total Points Members only High99% chance Members
Pts + Rebs + Asts × 1 prop Highup to 78% Members
Rebounds × 3 props Highup to 91% Members
Pts + Rebs × 1 prop Highup to 78% Members
3-Pointers × 1 prop Highup to 61% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Dallas Mavericks
+176
+ 2 more markets
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All 3 game markets and 6 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,257+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Dallas MavericksMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Golden State Warriors

  • Kristaps Porzingis CDay-to-day
  • Jimmy Butler III FOut
  • Moses Moody GOut

Dallas Mavericks

  • Marcus Sasser GDay-to-day
  • Santi Aldama FDay-to-day
  • Dereck Lively II CDay-to-day
  • Morez Johnson Jr. FDay-to-day
Availability updated Oct 11, 9:55AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 7 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability7 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Cooper Flagg Dallas Mavericks Pts + Rebs + Asts
Marvin Bagley III Dallas Mavericks Rebounds
Kristaps Porzingis Golden State Warriors Pts + Rebs
Daniel Gafford Dallas Mavericks Rebounds
Draymond Green Golden State Warriors 3-Pointers

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsGolden State Warriors @ Dallas MavericksNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadDallas Mavericks spreadNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks (season record) meet Golden State Warriors; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineDallas Mavericks to winNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks (season record) host or visit Golden State Warriors; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Dallas Mavericks totalNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Golden State Warriors; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Golden State Warriors totalNo line posted

Golden State Warriors averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Dallas Mavericks; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks — what the model found

Our model graded 9 betting markets for Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks — 3 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 9 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 8 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks — recent results

Dallas Mavericks have won 2 of their last 5 games; Golden State Warriors have won 2 of their last 5.

Dallas Mavericks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W132–115HOUAway
L117–135HOUHome
W149–128CHIHome
L120–139SAAway
L107–112PHXAway
Golden State Warriors — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W111–106SACHome
L118–123PORAway
W124–98LALHome
L101–104LACAway
L96–111PHXAway

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Dallas Mavericks won 1, Golden State Warriors won 1.

DateDallas MavericksGolden State WarriorsWinner
Mar 24131137Golden State Warriors
Jan 23123115Dallas Mavericks

Who’s out or in doubt

7 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Dallas Mavericks
PlayerStatus
Marcus Sasser GDAY-TO-DAY
Santi Aldama FDAY-TO-DAY
Dereck Lively II CDAY-TO-DAY
Morez Johnson Jr. FDAY-TO-DAY
Golden State Warriors
PlayerStatus
Kristaps Porzingis CDAY-TO-DAY
Jimmy Butler III FOUT
Moses Moody GOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks — model preview

Deep dive into Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Marvin Bagley III. Check out NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors stats and odds.

Marvin Bagley III (Dallas Mavericks) Under 9.5 Rebounds (-417)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Mavericks prepare to face the Warriors, all eyes should be on Marvin Bagley III, specifically his rebounding output. With the line set at 9.5, the data suggests a compelling case for taking the under. In his last five games, Bagley has averaged only 6.4 rebounds, and at home, that dips slightly to 6.6. When facing the Warriors, his numbers drop even further, with just 3.7 rebounds at home against them in recent matchups. Consider the broader picture: Bagley has failed to reach double digits in rebounds in 10 straight games, and his current hit rate at home is flawless-13 out of 13 games under the 9.5 mark. With Dallas aiming to control the pace and limit second-chance opportunities, Bagley's rebounding chances may be further stifled. Betting the under here seems like a prudent move, especially given the statistical trends at play.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks in the NBA. You may also see this matchup written as Warriors vs Mavericks, or as Mavericks vs Warriors. The model has generated 3 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Even at 1–1 across the last 2 meetings

Last meeting: Tue 24 Mar 2026, Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks: the Warriors won 137-131.

DateGameScoreWinner
24 Mar 2026Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks131–137Golden State Warriors
23 Jan 2026Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks123–115Dallas Mavericks
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