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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
Washington Nationals

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 27, 2:56PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Nationals Park, Washington
Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 4:15PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Cincinnati Reds Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings -118

The model graded 20 markets for Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $185 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 9 Aug 2026, 4:15PM at Nationals Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win66.8%
The price says54.1%
Best price-118
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Cincinnati Reds High67% chance -118
Spread Long-shot22% chance
Moneyline Lean58% chance
Spread Long-shot16% chance
Spread Long-shot12% chance
Spread Long-shot8% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Under 4.5 · $100 returned $460

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 936 of 1,930 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 26
Under 4.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $440
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Cincinnati Reds
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Brady Singer SPDay-to-day
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Michael Toglia 1BOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut

Probable pitcher

Nick Lodolo SP

Washington Nationals

  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • James Wood RFOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Matt Waldron SP
Availability updated Aug 26, 10:45PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineWashington NationalsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF3.6L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1

Washington Nationals moneyline form: last five 1-4, 3.6 runs/gm.

Run LineWashington Nationals run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF3.6L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1

Washington Nationals spread form: last five 1-4, 3.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

Washington Nationals total runs form: last five 1-4, 3.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsWashington Nationals team totalNo line posted
3.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.6L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1

Washington Nationals team total runs form: last five 1-4, 3.6 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals — recent results

Washington Nationals have won 1 of their last 5 games; Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5.

Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–13COLHome
L1–3COLHome
W13–3COLHome
L2–6MIAAway
L2–4MIAAway
Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3SFAway
W10–9SFAway
L0–5SFAway
W11–5ARIAway
L3–5ARIAway

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Washington Nationals won 5, Cincinnati Reds won 1.

DateWashington NationalsCincinnati RedsWinner
Aug 971Washington Nationals
Aug 882Washington Nationals
Aug 753Washington Nationals
May 14115Cincinnati Reds
May 1387Washington Nationals
May 12104Washington Nationals

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Josiah Gray SPOUT
Connelly Early SPOUT
James Wood RFOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT
Mitchell Parker RPOUT
Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Brady Singer SPDAY-TO-DAY
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Michael Toglia 1BOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
09 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 2.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Cincinnati Reds 2.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 6 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 4.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Reds vs Nationals, or as Nationals vs Reds. The most recent game between them was Sunday 9 August 2026 at Nationals Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Washington Nationals 5–1 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals7–1Washington Nationals
8 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals8–2Washington Nationals
7 Aug 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals5–3Washington Nationals
14 May 2026Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds15–1Cincinnati Reds
13 May 2026Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds7–8Washington Nationals
12 May 2026Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds4–10Washington Nationals
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