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Model picks & player props
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 12:55PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Indoor
Tue 16 Sep 2025, 11:35PM
0
Game Picks
5
Player Props
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Player props & full board
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Jonatan Clase LFDay-to-day
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Max Scherzer SPOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jesus Sanchez RFOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Kevin Gausman SP

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Jesse Scholtens RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Steven Wilson RPOut
  • Steven Matz SPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Drew Rasmussen SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 11:18PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jose Berrios TOR Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ryan Pepiot TBR Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jose Berrios TOR Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ryan Pepiot TBR Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
George Springer TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineTampa Bay RaysNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.4Home L53-2vs Toronto Blue Jays L54-1Win rec7-6

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.4Home L53-2vs Toronto Blue Jays L54-1ATS8-5

Tampa Bay Rays spread form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Tampa Bay Rays total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsTampa Bay Rays team totalNo line posted
4.4implied team total
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.4Home L53-2vs Toronto Blue Jays L54-1

Tampa Bay Rays team total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Ryan Pepiot. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays stats and odds.</p>

Ryan Pepiot (TBR) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-455)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Ryan Pepiot to allow over 0.5 walks in the game against the Toronto Blue Jays is supported by his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Pepiot has averaged two walks allowed per game, both overall and at home. This is four times the target of 0.5 walks for this bet. Additionally, his average innings pitched (IP) and outs are 5.6 and 16.8 respectively, indicating that he spends a significant amount of time on the mound, which increases the likelihood of allowing a walk. Finally, Pepiot's current hit streaks of 7 overall and 9 at home suggest a tendency for allowing hits, which correlates with a higher probability of walks. Therefore, based on Pepiot's recent statistics, the bet for over 0.5 walks allowed is a solid choice.

George Springer (TOR) Under 1.5 Hits (-256)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on George Springer for Under 1.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Springer's overall hits average is 0.8, which is significantly lower than the line of 1.5. His performance is even weaker when playing away games, with an average of only 0.4 hits. Springer has also struggled against the Tampa Bay Rays, with an average of 0 hits in his last five games against them. Despite his current hit streaks, both overall and away, his hit rates are not high enough to suggest he will exceed the line. Therefore, the statistical data supports the bet for Springer to have Under 1.5 hits in this game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Tuesday 16 September 2025 at Tropicana Field. The model has generated 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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