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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Seattle Mariners

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 11, 9:33PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Indoor
Sun 6 Jul 2025, 2:10AM
2
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline)
The model graded 8 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $244 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 51.4%, fair odds 1.95, book price +144, model edge +10.4%. Tip-off Sun 6 Jul 2025, 2:10AM at T-Mobile Park.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 559 of 1,032 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 5.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
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STAKE $100RETURNS $363
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez CDay-to-day
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut

Probable pitcher

Paul Skenes SP

Seattle Mariners

  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • J.P. Crawford SSOut
  • Carlos Vargas RPOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

Bryan Woo SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 11:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Luke Raley SEA Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Joey Bart PIT Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tommy Pham PIT Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Isiah Kiner-Falefa PIT Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Oneil Cruz PIT Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSeattle MarinersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

Seattle Mariners moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineSeattle Mariners run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1Free board9-9

Seattle Mariners spread form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Seattle Mariners total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSeattle Mariners team totalNo line posted
2.4runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

Seattle Mariners team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Seattle Mariners — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners — 2 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 7 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners — recent results

Seattle Mariners have won 1 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 1 of their last 5.

Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–3TBHome
L1–4TBHome
L1–2TBHome
W4–2DETHome
L0–11DETHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–11NYMHome
W9–0NYMHome
L4–6NYMHome
L2–5MILAway
L2–4MILAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Seattle Mariners are scoring 5.0 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 4.2 (2-3); Seattle Mariners pitchers are allowing 4.6 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

5.0
Seattle Mariners runs/G
4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesSeattle MarinersPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game5.04.2
Hits / game8.010.2
Home runs / game1.81.0
Walks drawn / game4.44.2
Batter K / game9.08.8
Earned runs allowed / game4.63.6
Pitching K / game7.25.6
Walks allowed / game4.62.4
L5 record3-22-3

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Seattle Mariners won 1, Pittsburgh Pirates won 2.

DateSeattle MarinersPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Jun 2515Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 24111Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 2332Seattle Mariners

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Matt Brash RPOUT
Cooper Criswell RPOUT
J.P. Crawford SSOUT
Carlos Vargas RPOUT
Cole Wilcox RPOUT
Luke Raley RFOUT
Will Wilson 3BOUT
Logan Evans SPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Seattle Mariners — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Seattle Mariners playing Pittsburgh Pirates. Includes analysis on key players like Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (+141)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates is backed by their stronger defensive performance. While the Mariners have an average of 5 runs scored in their last 5 games, their runs allowed average is nearly as high at 4.8, indicating a weaker defense. Comparatively, the Pirates, despite scoring less with an average of 4.2 runs, have a lower runs allowed average at 3.8. This shows a better defensive performance, which often plays a critical role in winning games. Moreover, the Pirates' runs allowed average drops further to 3.6 when playing away, which is the case in this matchup, suggesting an even stronger defense on the road. Therefore, despite the Mariners' slightly better scoring record, the Pirates' superior defense makes them a strong bet for the Moneyline market.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Mariners, or as Mariners vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Sunday 6 July 2025 at T-Mobile Park. The model has generated 2 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Pittsburgh Pirates 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
25 Jun 2026Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates5–1Pittsburgh Pirates
24 Jun 2026Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates11–1Pittsburgh Pirates
23 Jun 2026Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–3Seattle Mariners
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