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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Seattle Mariners

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Indoor
Sun 6 Jul 2025, 2:10AM
2
Game Picks
6
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline)
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners (MLB), model win probability 51.4%, fair odds 1.95, book price +144, model edge +10.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 6 Jul 2025, 2:10AM at T-Mobile Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP

Seattle Mariners

  • Julio Rodriguez CFDay-to-day
  • J.P. Crawford SSDay-to-day
  • Rob Refsnyder DHOut
  • Brendan Donovan 3BOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • Carlos Vargas RPOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

George Kirby SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 4:51AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Luke Raley SEA Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Joey Bart PIT Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tommy Pham PIT Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Isiah Kiner-Falefa PIT Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Oneil Cruz PIT Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSeattle MarinersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1Win rec7-3

Seattle Mariners moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineSeattle Mariners run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1ATS10-4

Seattle Mariners spread form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Seattle Mariners total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSeattle Mariners team totalNo line posted
2.5implied team total
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

Seattle Mariners team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Seattle Mariners are scoring 5.0 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 4.2 (2-3); Seattle Mariners pitchers are allowing 4.6 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

5.0
Seattle Mariners runs/G
4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesSeattle MarinersPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game5.04.2
Hits / game8.010.2
Home runs / game1.81.0
Walks drawn / game4.44.2
Batter K / game9.08.8
Earned runs allowed / game4.63.6
Pitching K / game7.25.6
Walks allowed / game4.62.4
L5 record3-22-3

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Seattle Mariners — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Seattle Mariners playing Pittsburgh Pirates. Includes analysis on key players like Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.</p>

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (+141)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates is backed by their stronger defensive performance. While the Mariners have an average of 5 runs scored in their last 5 games, their runs allowed average is nearly as high at 4.8, indicating a weaker defense. Comparatively, the Pirates, despite scoring less with an average of 4.2 runs, have a lower runs allowed average at 3.8. This shows a better defensive performance, which often plays a critical role in winning games. Moreover, the Pirates' runs allowed average drops further to 3.6 when playing away, which is the case in this matchup, suggesting an even stronger defense on the road. Therefore, despite the Mariners' slightly better scoring record, the Pirates' superior defense makes them a strong bet for the Moneyline market.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-185)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's recent performance makes this bet a solid choice. His last five games show an overall average of 1.6 hits, 0.6 runs, and 0.4 RBIs, well over the line of 0.5. Even when playing away, his averages remain strong with 1 hit, 0.4 runs, and 0.4 RBIs. His performance against the Mariners specifically is also impressive with 1.6 hits, 0.6 runs, and 0.6 RBIs on average. Moreover, Kiner-Falefa is on a hit streak, with five consecutive games overall and two away games where he has recorded a hit. This consistent performance, combined with his strong record against the Mariners, suggests a high probability of Kiner-Falefa achieving over 0.5 in the Batter Hits Runs RBIs market.

Oneil Cruz (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-476)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Oneil Cruz's statistics suggest a strong rationale for betting on Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market. His performance data shows a lower propensity for stealing bases, especially against the Mariners. His average stolen bases for the last five games overall is 0.4, which is less than the line of 0.5. More specifically, when playing against the Mariners, his stolen base average drops to 0.3. Even when playing away, his stolen base average is only slightly above the line at 0.6. Additionally, Cruz's current hit streaks, both overall and away, are relatively low, which could further limit his stealing opportunities. Given these factors, Cruz is statistically less likely to steal more than 0.5 bases in the upcoming game against the Mariners, making the Under 0.5 bet a sound choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 6 July 2025 at T-Mobile Park. The model has generated 2 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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