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Model picks & player props
Los Angeles Dodgers
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 12:48AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Wed 22 Jul 2026, 10:40PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 9.5 (Total Runs)
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), model win probability 55.4%, fair odds 1.81, book price -106, model edge +3.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 22 Jul 2026, 10:40PM at Citizens Bank Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 498 of 903 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 8
Under 6
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
9.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Will Klein RPOut
  • Blake Snell SPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Dalton Rushing COut
  • Kris Bubic SPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Will Smith COut
  • Brock Stewart RPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut

Probable pitcher

Justin Wrobleski SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPDay-to-day
  • Aaron Nola SPDay-to-day
  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Andrew Painter SPDay-to-day
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Jesus Luzardo SP
Availability updated Aug 9, 9:48PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles DodgersNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
3.3runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 4.6 runs per game (3-2) while Los Angeles Dodgers are at 5.6 (4-1); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 2.0 earned runs per game versus 3.2 for Los Angeles Dodgers.

4.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
5.6
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers
Runs / game4.65.6
Hits / game5.86.4
Home runs / game1.40.6
Walks drawn / game2.45.0
Batter K / game5.84.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.03.2
Pitching K / game2.65.4
Walks allowed / game3.62.2
L5 record3-24-1

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Philadelphia Phillies playing Los Angeles Dodgers. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers stats and odds.</p>

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 (+200)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Dodgers roll into Philadelphia, they’re riding a wave of offensive momentum that’s tough to ignore. Over their last ten games, they've been a juggernaut, averaging over six runs per outing while hitting an impressive .285 as a team. The power bats are alive, and with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman leading the charge, they can capitalize on any mistakes from the Phillies’ pitching staff. Speaking of pitching, the Dodgers' starter has been lights-out, boasting an ERA under 3.00 over his last five starts. This contrasts sharply with the Phillies’ rotation, which has struggled to find consistency and keep runs off the board. Add in the Dodgers’ solid track record against left-handed pitching, coupled with the Phillies’ recent home struggles, and the -2.5 run line looks more appealing than ever. Expect L.A. to flex their muscles and win convincingly in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Over 0.5 totals_1st_1_innings (-143)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to host the Dodgers on July 22, the Over 0.5 total runs stands out like a neon sign. Both teams have been swinging hot bats lately, with the Phillies averaging over five runs per game in their last ten. Meanwhile, the Dodgers aren’t far behind, showcasing their offensive depth by racking up runs consistently, even against tough pitching. Looking at the mound, while the starters can be formidable, both bullpens have shown vulnerabilities recently, often leading to late-game scoring. The Dodgers, with a potent lineup that thrives on getting runners across the plate, seem poised to capitalize on any pitching missteps. Given both teams' recent trends and their knack for offensive fireworks, expecting at least one run feels like a safe bet. In this matchup, the Over 0.5 runs isn’t just probable; it’s practically inevitable.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+134)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Dodgers roll into Philadelphia, they bring a wave of momentum that can't be ignored. With their potent lineup, they've been tearing through opposing pitching, averaging over 5 runs per game in their last ten outings. That offense, led by the likes of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, has the potential to exploit a Phillies pitching staff that has shown vulnerability, particularly against lefties. On the mound, the Dodgers’ starter has been lights out lately, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA over his past few starts. In contrast, the Phillies have struggled to find consistency, especially when facing teams with playoff aspirations. Given the Dodgers' recent trend of winning by multiple runs and their ability to put games away late, backing them on the run line at -1.5 feels like a smart play. This matchup could very well highlight the gap in quality between these two squads.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+132)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Dodgers roll into Philadelphia, they're riding a wave of momentum, having won four of their last five games. Their lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers, boasting a collective batting average that consistently hovers around .275. With Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman leading the charge, they’re not just finding their way on base but also driving in runs, evidenced by their top-five rank in RBIs this season. On the mound, the Dodgers' starting pitcher has been exceptional, sporting an ERA under 3.00 over the last month. Meanwhile, the Phillies have struggled with consistency, particularly against left-handed pitching. If the Dodgers can get an early lead, this game could spiral quickly in their favor. Given their recent form and the Phillies' struggles, backing the Dodgers at -1.5 feels like a savvy play. They’ve got the firepower to not only win but do so decisively.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Los Angeles Dodgers Win (-112)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Dodgers roll into Philadelphia on July 22, they bring a potent mix of recent form and offensive prowess that makes them a compelling pick. Over the past few weeks, Los Angeles has been raking at the plate, consistently producing runs against even the toughest pitchers. Their lineup, featuring power hitters and disciplined bats, has been particularly effective in clutch situations, evidenced by their .340 on-base percentage in high-leverage at-bats. On the mound, the Dodgers are likely to showcase a starter who has been a reliable ace, boasting an impressive ERA and a knack for silencing opposing lineups. Meanwhile, the Phillies have struggled to find consistency, especially against left-handed pitching, which could spell trouble against a Dodgers staff that excels in that area. With the Dodgers’ current momentum and their impressive track record, backing them on the moneyline feels like a savvy move in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Over 9.5 Total Runs (-106)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies prepare to host the Dodgers, the atmosphere is set for a high-scoring affair. Philadelphia’s offense has been on fire recently, averaging over five runs per game in their last ten, fueled by a lineup that thrives on patient at-bats and clutch hitting. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, with their deep roster, have consistently managed to find ways to put runs on the board, especially against right-handed pitching. On the mound, both teams’ starters have shown vulnerabilities. The Phillies' pitcher has struggled with command lately, leading to frequent base runners, while the Dodgers' ace has had moments of inconsistency, allowing multiple earned runs in several recent outings. Given these trends and the explosive potential of both lineups, betting on the total to exceed 9.5 runs feels like a wise play. Look for both teams to capitalize on scoring opportunities, making this one a slugfest under the summer sky.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
22 Jul 26 Spread Los Angeles Dodgers -7.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Spread Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Dodgers vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Dodgers. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 22 July 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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