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Model picks & player props
Los Angeles Dodgers
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 20, 10:33PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Mon 20 Jul 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Philadelphia Phillies -4 (Spread)
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), model win probability 24.3%, fair odds 4.12, book price +434, model edge +5.6%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Mon 20 Jul 2026, 11:10PM at Citizens Bank Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Philadelphia Phillies
-5.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Philadelphia Phillies on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Philadelphia Phillies
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Will Smith COut
  • Enrique Hernandez 1BOut
  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Edwin Diaz RPOut
  • Blake Snell SPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut

Probable pitcher

Yoshinobu Yamamoto SP
Will Klein SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Alan Rangel SP
Availability updated Jul 19, 11:20PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

2 markets live
Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run line-4 +434+5.6% edge
+0.5proj. margin
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Los Angeles Dodgers L52-3ATS1-14

Philadelphia Phillies spread vs Los Angeles Dodgers is live with a model 24% read and a +5.6% model edge; proj. margin +0.5.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles DodgersUnder 5 +424+3.1% edge
8.6proj. runs
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Los Angeles Dodgers L52-3O/U6-9

Philadelphia Phillies total runs vs Los Angeles Dodgers is live with a model 22% read and a +3.1% model edge; proj. runs 8.6.

MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Los Angeles Dodgers L52-3Win rec0-11

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
3.0implied team total
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.4Home L52-3vs Los Angeles Dodgers L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 3.4 runs per game (3-2) while Los Angeles Dodgers are at 4.8 (4-1); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for Los Angeles Dodgers.

3.4
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
4.8
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers
Runs / game3.44.8
Hits / game5.05.6
Home runs / game0.80.2
Walks drawn / game1.64.2
Batter K / game5.44.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.42.6
Pitching K / game3.64.8
Walks allowed / game3.02.4
L5 record3-24-1

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Philadelphia Phillies playing Los Angeles Dodgers. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers stats and odds.</p>

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+152)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to face the Dodgers on July 20, recent trends tilt the scales in favor of Philly. The Phillies have been on a hot streak at home, showcasing a robust offense that’s racked up an impressive 5.6 runs per game in their last ten. Their lineup has been relentless, with stars finding the gaps consistently, making it hard for even the most seasoned pitchers to contain them. On the mound, the Phillies' starter has emerged as a force, with a strikeout rate climbing above 9 K/9, which spells trouble for a Dodgers lineup that has been prone to swings and misses lately. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' inconsistencies, especially on the road, could leave them vulnerable. Given Philadelphia's recent form and a favorable pitching matchup, backing the Phillies on the run line feels like a savvy move in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Over 4.5 totals_1st_5_innings (-104)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to host the Dodgers, the stage is set for a potential offensive showcase. Both teams are riding waves of momentum, with the Phillies finding their groove at the plate, averaging over five runs in their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, known for their power-laden lineup, have been equally potent, averaging around six runs over their recent stretch. Pitching-wise, while the Dodgers boast a solid rotation, even their best arms have shown vulnerability against the long ball, particularly in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. With the temperature rising and the bats heating up, the likelihood of runs stacking up seems favorable. Considering the current trends and the implied probability nudging just over 50%, betting on the total runs to soar past 4.5 feels not just reasonable, but like a savvy play to jump on. Expect fireworks on Monday!

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+148)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to host the Dodgers on July 20, there's an interesting narrative playing out. Philadelphia has been flexing its muscles at home, bolstered by a lineup that’s found its rhythm. Over the last month, their offense has been relentless, consistently scoring in bunches, making them a formidable opponent at Citizens Bank Park. On the flip side, while the Dodgers have a strong rotation, they’ve shown vulnerabilities on the road, particularly against left-handed pitchers. With the Phillies likely turning to their ace, who has been lights-out lately, the Dodgers could struggle to keep pace. The Phillies' recent form, combined with their home-field advantage, gives them the upper hand. A bet on Philly to cover the -1.5 run line seems not only plausible but promising, especially considering how they’ve been able to put games out of reach against solid competition. Expect the Phillies to seize the moment with a decisive victory.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Philadelphia Phillies -0.5 (-114)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to face the Dodgers, there's a palpable buzz in the air, especially with Philadelphia's recent surge. They've been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging over five runs a game in their last ten outings, while their offense has been bolstered by a lineup that’s been finding gaps consistently. Meanwhile, the Dodgers' pitching staff has struggled on the road, with opponents hitting .270 against them in away games. Let’s not forget the home-field advantage that Citizens Bank Park provides, where the Phillies have been formidable. With the Dodgers’ inconsistent performance lately, it’s tough to see them keeping pace here. The Phillies have won four of their last five at home, and with a solid pitching matchup favoring them, they look poised to deliver a win by more than just a run. Taking Philadelphia at -0.5 on the run line feels like a wise move in this matchup.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Monday 20 July 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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