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Model picks & player props
Los Angeles Dodgers
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 19, 2:02AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Wed 22 Jul 2026, 10:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Philadelphia Phillies (Moneyline)
The model graded 20 markets for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $174 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 70.0%, fair odds 1.43, book price -135, model edge +12.5%. Tip-off Wed 22 Jul 2026, 10:40PM at Citizens Bank Park.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Los Angeles Dodgers -3.5 · $100 returned $385

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 754 of 1,520 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 17
Under 5
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Edwin Diaz RPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Will Smith COut
  • Brock Stewart RPOut
  • Justin Wrobleski SPOut
  • Dalton Rushing COut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Kris Bubic SPOut
  • Will Klein RPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut

Probable pitcher

Eric Lauer SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Zack Wheeler SP
Availability updated Aug 19, 12:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles DodgersNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
1.1runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Los Angeles Dodgers L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 1.6 runs/gm.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games; Los Angeles Dodgers have won 2 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–5MIAHome
W7–5MINAway
W9–1MINAway
W7–1MINAway
L1–7STLAway
Los Angeles Dodgers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–5COLAway
L2–6MILHome
W3–1MILHome
L1–4MILHome
L4–5MILHome

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 4.6 runs per game (3-2) while Los Angeles Dodgers are at 5.6 (4-1); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 2.0 earned runs per game versus 3.2 for Los Angeles Dodgers.

4.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
5.6
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers
Runs / game4.65.6
Hits / game5.86.4
Home runs / game1.40.6
Walks drawn / game2.45.0
Batter K / game5.84.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.03.2
Pitching K / game2.65.4
Walks allowed / game3.62.2
L5 record3-24-1

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 2, Los Angeles Dodgers won 4.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesLos Angeles DodgersWinner
Jul 2259Los Angeles Dodgers
Jul 2112Los Angeles Dodgers
Jul 20107Philadelphia Phillies
May 3119Los Angeles Dodgers
May 3143Philadelphia Phillies
May 3024Los Angeles Dodgers

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Los Angeles Dodgers
PlayerStatus
Edwin Diaz RPOUT
Bobby Miller SPOUT
Tyler Glasnow SPOUT
Blake Treinen RPOUT
Will Smith COUT
Brock Stewart RPOUT
Justin Wrobleski SPOUT
Dalton Rushing COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Philadelphia Phillies playing Los Angeles Dodgers. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers stats and odds.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 (+200)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Dodgers roll into Philadelphia, they’re riding a wave of offensive momentum that’s tough to ignore. Over their last ten games, they've been a juggernaut, averaging over six runs per outing while hitting an impressive .285 as a team. The power bats are alive, and with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman leading the charge, they can capitalize on any mistakes from the Phillies’ pitching staff. Speaking of pitching, the Dodgers' starter has been lights-out, boasting an ERA under 3.00 over his last five starts. This contrasts sharply with the Phillies’ rotation, which has struggled to find consistency and keep runs off the board. Add in the Dodgers’ solid track record against left-handed pitching, coupled with the Phillies’ recent home struggles, and the -2.5 run line looks more appealing than ever. Expect L.A. to flex their muscles and win convincingly in this matchup.

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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
22 Jul 26 Spread Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Spread Los Angeles Dodgers -3.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Spread Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Moneyline Los Angeles Dodgers ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Spread Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 12.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Dodgers vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Dodgers. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 22 July 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Los Angeles Dodgers 4–2 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
22 Jul 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies5–9Los Angeles Dodgers
21 Jul 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies1–2Los Angeles Dodgers
20 Jul 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies10–7Philadelphia Phillies
31 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers3–4Philadelphia Phillies
31 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers9–1Los Angeles Dodgers
30 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers4–2Los Angeles Dodgers
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