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Model picks & player props
Los Angeles Dodgers
VS
New York Mets

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 1, 5:18AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:15PM
20
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 8 Total Runs -105

The model graded 21 markets for Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $195 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:15PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win63.0%
The price says51.3%
Best price-105
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 8 High63% chance -105
Total Runs High67% chance
Total Runs Long-shot34% chance
Total Runs Long-shot26% chance
Total Runs High74% chance
Total Runs Long-shot20% chance
Spread Long-shot33% chance
Spread Long-shot26% chance
Spread Long-shot23% chance
Batter - Total Bases × 1 prop Highup to 78%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 3.5 · $100 returned $168

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
7.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Los Angeles DodgersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Will Smith COut
  • Justin Wrobleski SPOut
  • Roki Sasaki SPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut
  • Andy Pages CFOut
  • Edwin Diaz RPOut
  • Will Klein RPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Dalton Rushing COut
  • Kris Bubic SPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut

New York Mets

  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Robert Stock SP
Availability updated Aug 31, 10:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Andy Pages Batter - Total Bases

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs Los Angeles Dodgers L51-4

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs Los Angeles Dodgers L51-4

New York Mets spread form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Los Angeles DodgersNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
0.5runs we expect
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs Los Angeles Dodgers L51-4

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 21 betting markets for Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 21 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 20 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5 games; Los Angeles Dodgers have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–2TBAway
L3–6HOUHome
W6–2HOUHome
L1–3HOUHome
L2–8MILHome
Los Angeles Dodgers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–1DETAway
L1–2DETAway
W2–1DETAway
L0–1ATLAway
L5–6ATLAway

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 3.2 runs per game (2-3) while Los Angeles Dodgers are at 6.0 (4-1); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Los Angeles Dodgers.

3.2
New York Mets runs/G
6.0
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsLos Angeles Dodgers
Runs / game3.26.0
Hits / game4.67.4
Home runs / game0.81.0
Walks drawn / game2.63.8
Batter K / game4.04.8
Earned runs allowed / game2.23.6
Pitching K / game4.05.8
Walks allowed / game1.42.4
L5 record2-34-1

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: New York Mets won 1, Los Angeles Dodgers won 5.

DateNew York MetsLos Angeles DodgersWinner
Jul 2683New York Mets
Jul 2534Los Angeles Dodgers
Jul 2424Los Angeles Dodgers
Apr 1628Los Angeles Dodgers
Apr 1512Los Angeles Dodgers
Apr 1404Los Angeles Dodgers

Who’s out or in doubt

20 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Los Angeles Dodgers
PlayerStatus
Will Smith COUT
Justin Wrobleski SPOUT
Roki Sasaki SPOUT
Gavin Stone SPOUT
Jake Cousins RPOUT
Andy Pages CFOUT
Edwin Diaz RPOUT
Will Klein RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets — model preview

Deep dive into New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers stats and odds.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers : New York Mets Win (+124)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers, there’s a compelling case for siding with the Mets on the moneyline. Recent trends show the Mets have been finding their rhythm at the plate, boasting a .275 team batting average over the last two weeks, which is crucial against a Dodgers pitching staff that, despite its reputation, has allowed more runs than expected lately. On the flip side, the Mets' starting pitcher has been a revelation; he’s been racking up strikeouts while keeping his ERA under 3.00. The Dodgers, while formidable, have struggled against left-handed pitching, which could play into the Mets' hands. With the home-field advantage fueling the team’s confidence, they seem poised to capitalize on this matchup. The combination of these factors suggests a great opportunity for the Mets to secure a crucial win in front of their home crowd.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
25 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Moneyline Los Angeles Dodgers ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Spread New York Mets +2.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Dodgers vs Mets, or as Mets vs Dodgers. The most recent game between them was Saturday 25 July 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 31 meetings on record
Los Angeles Dodgers 19–12 across the last 31 meetings · these games average 8.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jul 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets8–3New York Mets
25 Jul 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets3–4Los Angeles Dodgers
24 Jul 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets2–4Los Angeles Dodgers
16 Apr 2026New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers8–2Los Angeles Dodgers
15 Apr 2026New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers2–1Los Angeles Dodgers
14 Apr 2026New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers2–1Los Angeles Dodgers
13 Apr 2026New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers4–0Los Angeles Dodgers
5 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers6–5Los Angeles Dodgers
4 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers1–6New York Mets
3 Jun 2025New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers6–5Los Angeles Dodgers

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 31 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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