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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Colorado Rockies

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 1:08PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Coors Field, Denver
Outdoor
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 7:10PM
6
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 5.5 (Total Runs)
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies (MLB), model win probability 91.4%, fair odds 1.09, book price +134, model edge +48.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 21 Jun 2026, 7:10PM at Coors Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
5.5
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Colorado RockiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP

Colorado Rockies

  • Jeff Criswell RPOut
  • Brenton Doyle CFOut
  • Jose Quintana SPOut
  • Blas Castano RPOut
  • Jaden Hill RPOut
  • Chase Dollander SPOut
  • Welinton Herrera RPOut
  • McCade Brown SPOut
  • RJ Petit RPOut
  • Pierson Ohl RPOut
  • Kris Bryant DHOut

Probable pitcher

Kyle Freeland SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 2:06AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineColorado RockiesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.4Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Colorado Rockies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineColorado Rockies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.4Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Colorado Rockies spread form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Colorado Rockies total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsColorado Rockies team totalNo line posted
2.9implied team total
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.4Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Colorado Rockies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Colorado Rockies are scoring 3.8 runs per game (4-1) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 2.6 (3-2); Colorado Rockies pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

3.8
Colorado Rockies runs/G
2.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesColorado RockiesPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game3.82.6
Hits / game5.05.8
Home runs / game1.20.6
Walks drawn / game1.81.0
Batter K / game2.82.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.81.6
Pitching K / game2.43.2
Walks allowed / game2.21.2
L5 record4-13-2

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies — model preview

<p>Winning baseball bets for Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Brenton Doyle. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.</p>

Brenton Doyle (COL) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-588)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Brenton Doyle for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a strong choice given his recent performance statistics. Doyle's average stolen bases over the last five games, whether overall or at home, is only 0.2. This is significantly below the line of 0.5. Furthermore, when playing against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Doyle's stolen base average drops to zero. He also has a current hit streak of only three games overall, suggesting a lower likelihood of getting on base to attempt a steal. Additionally, the absence of caught stealing (Cs) instances indicates that Doyle is not often taking the risk to steal bases. Therefore, the statistical data strongly suggests that Doyle is unlikely to steal a base in the upcoming game, making the Under 0.5 bet a sensible choice.

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a strong choice for this Moneyline bet based on recent performance data. In their last five games against the Colorado Rockies, the Pirates have won four, suggesting a strong match-up advantage. Additionally, the Rockies have been struggling at home lately, with a 2-3 record. Their run production at home is also lower than their overall average, indicating a potential difficulty in capitalizing on home-field advantage. Conversely, the Pirates have been consistent in their run production and have a better run allowance average, both overall and away, compared to the Rockies. This suggests that the Pirates have a stronger defense, which could be crucial in this matchup. Therefore, based on these statistics, the Pittsburgh Pirates are a good bet for this game.

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (-172)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a solid bet for this game against the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have been struggling lately, with a 2-3 record in their last five games both overall and at home. They've also been outperformed by the Pirates in their recent head-to-head matchups, losing four out of five games. Additionally, the Rockies have been allowing an average of 4.2 runs at home, higher than the Pirates' away runs allowed average of 3.6. Although the Rockies' scoring average is slightly higher than the Pirates', their recent performance suggests that they may struggle to capitalize on scoring opportunities. The Pirates' lower runs allowed average combined with the Rockies' recent losing record makes the Pirates a favorable bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
21 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 21 June 2026 at Coors Field. The model has generated 6 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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