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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Rays
VS
Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 10:24PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Baltimore Orioles Moneyline -108

The model graded 70 markets for Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $193 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 23 Aug 2026, 5:35PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win50.2%
The price says51.1%
Best price-108
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Baltimore Orioles Lean50% chance -108
Spread Long-shot14% chance
Spread Long-shot5% chance
Spread Long-shot3% chance
Spread Long-shot2% chance
Spread Long-shot1% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 88%
Pitcher - Walks × 2 props Highup to 87%
Batter - RBIs × 7 props Highup to 82%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 3 props Highup to 88%
Batter - Singles × 3 props Highup to 67%
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 2 props Leanup to 57%
Batter - Total Bases × 9 props Highup to 71%
Batter - Hits × 1 prop Leanup to 52%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 7.5 · $100 returned $460

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Baltimore OriolesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Jake Fraley RFOut
  • Griffin Jax SPOut
  • Cole Sulser RPOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Ben Williamson 2BOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Drew Rasmussen SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut
  • Zach Eflin SPOut

Probable pitcher

Chris Bassitt SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 8:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Shane Baz BAL Pitcher - Strikeouts
Shane Baz BAL Pitcher - Walks
Nick Martinez CIN Pitcher - Walks
Liam Hicks Batter - RBIs
Chandler Simpson TBR Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Tampa Bay Rays L53-2

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Tampa Bay Rays L53-2

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
0.5runs we expect
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Tampa Bay Rays L53-2

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles — recent results

Baltimore Orioles have won 3 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5.

Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3ATHAway
L5–7STLAway
W8–7STLAway
W13–1STLAway
L1–3TBHome
Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–6SDHome
W9–4SDHome
W3–0DETAway
L1–4DETAway
W4–1DETAway

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Baltimore Orioles won 8, Tampa Bay Rays won 2.

DateBaltimore OriolesTampa Bay RaysWinner
Aug 2313Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 2232Baltimore Orioles
Aug 2153Baltimore Orioles
Aug 1767Tampa Bay Rays
Aug 16102Baltimore Orioles
Aug 1543Baltimore Orioles
Aug 1465Baltimore Orioles
May 27112Baltimore Orioles
May 2661Baltimore Orioles
May 2597Baltimore Orioles

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT
Jordan Westburg 3BOUT
Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Jake Fraley RFOUT
Griffin Jax SPOUT
Cole Sulser RPOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Ben Williamson 2BOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Ryan Pepiot SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

Our Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles prediction for August 24, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 24, 2026 our model has run Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Jonathan Aranda (TBR) Under 0.5 RBIs (-256), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 6 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 6.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 5.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Rays vs Orioles, or as Orioles vs Rays. The most recent game between them was Sunday 23 August 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 60 meetings on record
Baltimore Orioles 37–23 across the last 60 meetings · these games average 9.0 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
23 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles1–3Tampa Bay Rays
22 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles3–2Baltimore Orioles
21 Aug 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles5–3Baltimore Orioles
17 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays7–6Tampa Bay Rays
16 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays2–10Baltimore Orioles
15 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays3–4Baltimore Orioles
14 Aug 2026Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays5–6Baltimore Orioles
27 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles11–2Baltimore Orioles
26 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles6–1Baltimore Orioles
25 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles9–7Baltimore Orioles

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 60 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

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