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The latest Bet Better model pick for Shane Baz is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +29.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Shane Baz

MLB

+29.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 5.5 -164 (1.61)
+29.3% Edge
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul, 5:35PM
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs BAL @ BOS
updated Jul 20, 11:10PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
91.5%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+29.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts91.5%—62.1%1.09+29.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Shane Baz (NA) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-164)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Orioles gear up to face the Royals, all eyes will be on Shane Baz as he takes the mound. While Baz has flashed potential this season, his strikeout numbers have been trending downward, especially against teams like Kansas City that are known for their contact-heavy approach. The Royals rank in the top tier of the league for making contact, which could limit Baz's strikeout opportunities significantly. Additionally, considering that he’s predicted to record only around 2.76 strikeouts today, the under 5.5 seems like a wise move. The Royals are also riding a wave of momentum, adding to their confidence at the plate. With his recent performances not aligning with the strikeout line, it’s clear that the odds may be favoring an underwhelming day for Baz in that department. Expect the Royals to put the ball in play and keep those strikeouts down.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.520%

Shane Baz MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2075%
O 2.560%
O 3.530%
O 4.510%
O 5.510%
O 6.530%
O 7.510%

Shane Baz MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2085%
O 0.580%
O 1.550%
O 2.540%
O 3.520%

Shane Baz MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
2avg earned runs · L5

Shane Baz MLB earned runs: averaging 2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
17avg outs · L5
L2070%

Shane Baz MLB outs: cleared over 15.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 17 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles Pitcher - Strikeouts 5.5 Under -164 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Shane Baz is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Shane Baz is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +29.3% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles on Sunday 12 July at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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