Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Shane Baz is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +19.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:15PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 2.5
-116 (1.86) · $100→$186
+19.0% Edge
Baltimore Orioles
@
Texas Rangers
Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas · Indoor
Sat 8 Aug, 11:15PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
View results →
Implied Probability
53.8%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 72.7% | — | 53.8% | 1.37 | +19.0% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.
Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime
| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 2/3 |
| Last 5 games | 2/5 |
| Last 10 games | 7/10 |
See the full 20-game form curve
Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.
Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime
Shane Baz Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-116)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Texas Rangers play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Shane Baz Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-116). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -116 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.62 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Unlock the full breakdown
See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.
Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime
Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
Shane Baz MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted Shane Baz MLB outs: cleared over 15.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 17 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Shane Baz is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Shane Baz is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.0% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers on Saturday 8 August at Globe Life Field, Arlington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.