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The latest Bet Better model pick for Pete Alonso is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +17.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 18, 9:25AM UTC
MLB

Pete Alonso

NYM

+17.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -179 (1.56)
+17.1% Edge
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Tue 7 Jul, 10:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
81.2%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+17.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases81.2%—64.1%1.23+17.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Pete Alonso (NYM) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-179)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Orioles prepare to host the Cubs, all eyes will be on Pete Alonso, but betting the under on his total bases feels like the smart play. While Alonso is an explosive talent, he’s running into a tough matchup against Baltimore’s ace, who’s been dominant at the plate lately. The Orioles' pitching staff has held opponents to a mere .230 batting average at home, showcasing their ability to stifle even the most potent lineups. Additionally, Alonso has struggled against left-handed pitching, and Baltimore’s starter checks that box. Given that his recent form has dipped—facing a pitcher with a strikeout rate over 25%—it’s likely he’ll find it hard to connect. With the model predicting just under 0.8 total bases for Alonso and an implied probability suggesting this under has a strong chance, taking the under seems like the savvy play in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2064%
O 0.570%
O 1.530%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.3 · hi 1 · lo 0
001

Pete Alonso MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2055%
O 1.560%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%

Pete Alonso MLB total bases: cleared over 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Pete Alonso MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2073%
O 0.580%
O 1.550%

Pete Alonso MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.510%

Pete Alonso MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Pete Alonso MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -179 ✗ MISS
03 Jul 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -238 ✓ HIT
24 Jun 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5 Over +125 ✗ MISS
24 Jun 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Hits — — — Pending
24 Jun 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Runs Scored — — — Pending
24 Jun 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Singles — — — Pending

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About This Player

Pete Alonso (NYM) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Pete Alonso is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.1% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday 7 July at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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