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The latest Bet Better model pick for Pete Alonso is Over 1.5 on Batter - Home Runs.
On Batter - Home Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 4 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 4%, the price says 2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Under 1.50 BBlanded 10 of the last 10
Under 1.50 2Blanded 10 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 20, 10:43AM UTC
MLB

Pete Alonso

NYM

Value call

Pete Alonso has one live pick today: Batter - Home Runs Over 1.5 that pays $4,100 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Batter - Home Runs Over 1.5 +4000 (41.00) · $100→$4,100
Value call
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Sun 20 Sep, 11:20PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher outs unders: 72 of 119 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
4 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Batter - Home Runs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 4.0% · the book's price implies 2.4% · gap +1.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Home Runs4.0%—2.4%24.94+1.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Pete Alonso (NYM) Over 1.5 Home Runs (+4000)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Baltimore Orioles play Milwaukee Brewers in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Pete Alonso (NYM) Over 1.5 Home Runs (+4000). That is a Home Runs bet. It was priced at +4000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $410 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Pete Alonso's lines for Sun 20 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Batter Home Runs 1.5
+425 best over price · 5 booksHow many home runs does Pete Alonso hit?

Pete Alonso's batter home runs line is 1.5, best over price +425 across 5 books.

Batter Hits + Runs + RBIs 1.5
How many home runs does Pete Alonso hit?

Pete Alonso's batter hits + runs + rbis line is 1.5.

Batter RBIs 0.5
+224 best over price · 5 booksHow many home runs does Pete Alonso hit?

Pete Alonso's batter rbis line is 0.5, best over price +224 across 5 books.

Batter Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5
How many home runs does Pete Alonso hit?

Pete Alonso's batter hits + runs + rbis line is 0.5.

Recent form (last 5 games)

Pete Alonso is averaging 1.4 hits, 0.2 home runs and 0.8 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

1.4
Hits
0.2
HR
0.8
RBI
0.4
Runs
0.4
Walks
0.8
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Hits Runs Rbis

Pete Alonso has gone over 0.5 hits runs rbis in 14% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o0.514%
o1.514%
o2.514%
o3.50%
o4.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Pete Alonso is averaging 1.4 hits per game over his last 5 and 1.2 in away games, including his recent form against MIA.

1.4
Hits · Overall
1.2
Hits · Away
1.6
Hits · vs MIA
0.2
HR · Overall
0.2
HR · Away
0.2
HR · vs MIA
Quick answers:How many home runs does Pete Alonso hit?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Walks — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Singles — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Singles — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Runs Scored — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - RBIs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Pete Alonso (NYM) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Pete Alonso is Over 1.5 on Batter - Home Runs. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles on Sunday 20 September at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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