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Model picks & player props
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
VS
Miami Heat

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 5 markets for New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat and backs Miami Heat -7.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $188.

5
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Miami Heat
to win by 8+ points
Miami Heat -7.5 Spread
You bet$10 If it wins$18.77Best price-114
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win80.3%
The price says53.2%

The model graded 5 markets for New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat (NBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $188 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Miami Heat -7.5 High80% chance -114
Team Total Members only High96% chance Members
Spread Members only High66% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Long-shot40% chance Members
Total Points Members only High97% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Miami Heat
-7.5
-114
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Miami HeatSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New Orleans PelicansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New Orleans PelicansMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Jordan Poole GOut
  • Trey Murphy III FDay-to-day
  • Yves Missi COut

Miami Heat

  • Myron Gardner FDay-to-day
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo FDay-to-day
Availability updated Nov 4, 1:08AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 5 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability5 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsNew Orleans Pelicans @ Miami HeatNo line posted

Miami Heat and New Orleans Pelicans combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadMiami Heat spreadNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) meet New Orleans Pelicans; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineMiami Heat to winNo line posted

Miami Heat (season record) host or visit New Orleans Pelicans; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Miami Heat totalNo line posted

Miami Heat averaged their season scoring ahead of facing New Orleans Pelicans; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)New Orleans Pelicans totalNo line posted

New Orleans Pelicans averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Miami Heat; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat — what the model found

Our model graded 5 betting markets for New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat — 5 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

5
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 5 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat — recent results

Miami Heat have won 2 of their last 5 games; New Orleans Pelicans have won 3 of their last 5.

Miami Heat — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L117–138LALAway
W145–125INDHome
W129–117ATLAway
L109–113DALHome
L111–128DETHome
New Orleans Pelicans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W135–134MEMAway
W121–99ATLHome
W132–120SACHome
L91–104DENHome
L135–141DENAway

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Miami Heat won 3, New Orleans Pelicans won 0.

DateMiami HeatNew Orleans PelicansWinner
Oct 8128118Miami Heat
Feb 12123111Miami Heat
Jan 4125106Miami Heat

Who’s out or in doubt

5 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Heat
PlayerStatus
Myron Gardner FDAY-TO-DAY
Giannis Antetokounmpo FDAY-TO-DAY
New Orleans Pelicans
PlayerStatus
Jordan Poole GOUT
Trey Murphy III FDAY-TO-DAY
Yves Missi COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat — model preview

Deep dive into Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, NBA parlay odds.

Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans : Miami Heat Under 136.5 Team Total Points (-476)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Miami Heat Under 136.5' points is statistically substantiated when examining recent performance data. Over their last five games, the Heat have averaged 121.4 points, significantly below the betting line of 136.5 points. This trend persists even when only considering their home games, where the Heat's average score is 123.4 points. Furthermore, the model prediction anticipates the Heat will score approximately 114 points in the upcoming game, suggesting a lower scoring performance. While the Heat's recent form is strong with a 4-1 win-loss record, this hasn't translated into high-scoring games, as their opponents' average scores have been around 110-120 points. This indicates a more defensive style of play, limiting total points scored. Therefore, the statistical evidence supports the bet on 'Miami Heat Under 136.5'.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat in the NBA. You may also see this matchup written as Pelicans vs Heat, or as Heat vs Pelicans. The model has generated 5 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat: game facts

Past meetings and recent results

Where they last met

  • 11 Feb 2026Miami Heat beat New Orleans Pelicans 123-111 on the road
  • 4 Jan 2026Miami Heat beat New Orleans Pelicans 125-106 at home

New Orleans Pelicans: last 5 results

  1. 2 Nov 2026Wonat Memphis Grizzlies 135-134
  2. 31 Oct 2026Wonvs Atlanta Hawks 121-99
  3. 29 Oct 2026Wonvs Sacramento Kings 132-120
  4. 28 Oct 2026Lostvs Denver Nuggets 91-104
  5. 24 Oct 2026Lostat Denver Nuggets 135-141

Miami Heat: last 5 results

  1. 2 Nov 2026Lostat Los Angeles Lakers 117-138
  2. 30 Oct 2026Wonvs Indiana Pacers 145-125
  3. 28 Oct 2026Wonat Atlanta Hawks 129-117
  4. 26 Oct 2026Lostvs Dallas Mavericks 109-113
  5. 24 Oct 2026Lostat Charlotte Hornets 110-115

Quick answers

Who won the last Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans game? Miami Heat won their last meeting 123-111 on 11 February 2026.

How have New Orleans Pelicans and Miami Heat done lately? New Orleans Pelicans won 3 and lost 2 of the last 5 results we hold. Miami Heat won 2 and lost 3 of the last 5 results we hold.

From the final scores we hold. Newest game first.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat head-to-head record

Final scores · 3 meetings on record
Miami Heat 3–0 across the last 3 meetings

Last meeting: Thu 8 Oct 2026, New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat: the Heat won 128-118.

DateGameScoreWinner
8 Oct 2026New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat128–118Miami Heat
12 Feb 2026Miami Heat @ New Orleans Pelicans111–123Miami Heat
4 Jan 2026New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat125–106Miami Heat

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