On Monday 12 October 2026, Everton play Chelsea in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +0.75 Goal Handicap, priced at -196 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Everton vs Chelsea: Everton +0.75 Goal Handicap (-196)
Odds correct at time of publishing As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, recent form reveals a compelling narrative. The Toffees have shown resilience at home, averaging 1.8 goals per game over their last five fixtures at Goodison Park while allowing only 1.6. Despite their mixed record of 1-4-0 overall, they’ve been competitive, especially against Chelsea, claiming a win and a draw in their last five meetings. Chelsea's away struggles are noteworthy, conceded 2 goals per game on the road recently, which hints at vulnerability. With Everton's attacking prowess peaking at home and Chelsea’s inconsistent backline, the odds are favoring Everton to at least hold their ground. Expect a tightly contested match where Everton could very well edge out a favorable result.
Everton vs Chelsea: Everton Draw No Bet (+135)
Odds correct at time of publishing As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, there’s a palpable sense of optimism for the home side. Despite a shaky recent record, their home form shows promise, with an average of 1.8 goals scored in their last five matches at Goodison Park. They’ve also kept things relatively tight defensively, allowing just 1.6 goals per game in that stretch. Chelsea, on the other hand, has struggled in away games, managing only 1.2 goals while conceding 2.0. With Everton’s resilience at home and Chelsea’s inconsistency on the road, this matchup feels ripe for an Everton upset. The Toffees have a history of competitive encounters against the Blues, and with a Draw No Bet option, backing Everton seems both prudent and inviting. Given their determination to turn the tide at home, they could very well clinch a victory here.
That is how our model reads Everton v Chelsea. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.