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Model picks & player props
MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs and backs Over 7.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $252.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Over 7.5 total runs
Over 7.5 Total Runs
You bet$10 If it wins$25.20Best price+152
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win39.3%
The price says38.7%

The model graded 70 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $252 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 13 Sep 2026, 2:20 PM ET at Wrigley Field.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 7.5 Long-shot39% chance +152
Total Runs Members only Long-shot23% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean56% chance Members
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean51% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot33% chance Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 2 props Highup to 89% Members
Batter - Walks × 3 props Leanup to 53% Members
Batter - Strikeouts × 4 props Highup to 84% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 7 props Leanup to 44% Members
Pitcher - Outs × 2 props Highup to 67% Members
Batter - Home Runs × 5 props Long-shotup to 34% Members
Batter - Hits × 10 props Leanup to 53% Members
Batter - RBIs × 5 props Leanup to 48% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 3 props Highup to 66% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs last met on Sun 13 Sep 2026: Pittsburgh Pirates won 4-3. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
7.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,149+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Oneil Cruz CFDay-to-day
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Braxton Ashcraft SPOut
  • Esmerlyn Valdez RFOut
  • Isaac Mattson RPOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut

Chicago Cubs

  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut
Availability updated Sep 29, 5:37PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Bubba Chandler Pitcher - Strikeouts
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter - Walks
Miguel Amaya Batter - Strikeouts
Matthew Boyd CHC Pitcher - Strikeouts
Michael Busch CHC Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA4.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA4.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
3.0runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA4.0Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L54-1

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.6 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 1 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 2 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4SDAway
L0–8SDAway
W6–2BOSAway
L0–2BOSAway
L3–4BOSAway
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2DETAway
L3–4DETAway
L7–8DETAway
W2–1STLHome
L1–5STLHome

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 5.4 runs per game (1-4) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 3.6 (4-1); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 5.0 earned runs per game versus 3.4 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

5.4
Chicago Cubs runs/G
3.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game5.43.6
Hits / game8.29.0
Home runs / game0.81.0
Walks drawn / game3.62.2
Batter K / game6.84.4
Earned runs allowed / game5.03.4
Pitching K / game8.08.2
Walks allowed / game4.02.0
L5 record1-44-1

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 6, Pittsburgh Pirates won 4.

DateChicago CubsPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Sep 1334Pittsburgh Pirates
Sep 1243Chicago Cubs
Sep 11122Chicago Cubs
Jul 2678Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 25110Chicago Cubs
Jul 2432Chicago Cubs
May 2872Chicago Cubs
May 27104Chicago Cubs
May 26112Pittsburgh Pirates
May 2512Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Justin Steele SPOUT
Shelby Miller RPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Porter Hodge RPOUT
Cade Horton SPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Oneil Cruz CFDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Braxton Ashcraft SPOUT
Esmerlyn Valdez RFOUT
Isaac Mattson RPOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Our Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs prediction for September 14, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 14, 2026 our model has run Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Sunday 13 September 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs head-to-head record

Final scores · 52 meetings on record
Chicago Cubs 34–18 across the last 52 meetings · these games average 9.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 13 Sep 2026, Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs: the Pirates won 4-3.

DateGameScoreWinner
13 Sep 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs3–4Pittsburgh Pirates
12 Sep 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs4–3Chicago Cubs
11 Sep 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs12–2Chicago Cubs
26 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates8–7Pittsburgh Pirates
25 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–11Chicago Cubs
24 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–3Chicago Cubs
28 May 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–7Chicago Cubs
27 May 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–10Chicago Cubs
26 May 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates12–1Pittsburgh Pirates
25 May 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–1Pittsburgh Pirates

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 52 meetings on file.

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