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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Noah Anderson is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +8.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 12:55PM UTC
AFL

Noah Anderson

Gold Coast SUNS

+8.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 22.5 -714 (1.14)
+8.6% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
96.4%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+8.6%
Predicted Value
31.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals96.4%87.7%1.04+8.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 22.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Noah Anderson is primed to shine for the Gold Coast Suns when they face off against the Greater Western Sydney Giants. Over his last five away games, Anderson has been a midfield maestro, consistently racking up an average of 29.6 disposals, well above the line of 22.5 set for this game. His ability to find the footy and drive his team forward is evident in his impressive average of 564 meters gained per game. Additionally, his recent form against the Giants has been stellar, averaging 28.2 disposals in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 6 in away games, Anderson is in a rich vein of form that makes the over 22.5 disposals a compelling bet. Expect him to dominate the contest and comfortably surpass this line.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Greater Western Sydney GiantsO 25.5 -227
50%hit L10 O 25.5
23.8avg disposals L5
Away29.6vs GWS GIANTS32.2Season best42
O 23.570%
O 24.570%
O 25.550%
O 26.550%
O 27.550%
O 28.550%
Game log vs line (O 25.5)8 / 10 hit
23393029272330263330

Noah Anderson has gone over 25.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 23.8 disposals, best 42). Current line: Over 25.5 at -227.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 23.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 22.5 Over -714 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 24.5 Over -294 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Noah Anderson (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Noah Anderson is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.6% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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