On Friday 7 August 2026, Adelaide Crows play Richmond Tigers in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 15.5 Disposals, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk about Jayden Short and why he's a prime target for the Over 15.5 disposals against the Adelaide Crows. Short's been a defensive linchpin for the Tigers, averaging a solid 22.4 disposals in his last five away games. His ability to read the play and intercept (averaging 4.2) sets him apart, while his kicking game (17.2 kicks) is crucial for initiating attacks. Short's mettle is evident in his contested possessions (3 avg) and impeccable disposal efficiency (88.2%). Facing the Crows, who allow midfielders to run amok, Short's past performances against them (23 avg disposals) bode well. With a stellar hit streak of 9 away games and 19 overall, Short's consistency makes the Over a tantalizing bet at the Adelaide Oval.

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 16.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jayden Short snagging disposals, it's like watching a skilled thief work the field. He's been on an absolute tear lately, averaging a juicy 22.4 disposals over his last five away games. Short's footy IQ and precise kicking have been pivotal, with 17.2 kicks and 5.2 handballs per game showcasing his playmaking abilities. Facing the Adelaide Crows, who he's historically notched up 23 disposals against, Short thrives under pressure. With a stellar 88.2% disposal efficiency backing him up, he's a possession magnet capable of splitting the middle with his kicks. Short's recent form, combined with his consistent performance against the Crows, makes hitting Over 16.5 disposals a solid bet for punters looking to ride his hot streak.

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 17.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals, Jayden Short is as reliable as they come. A key cog in Richmond's defensive setup, Short has been a prolific ball-winner, averaging 22.4 disposals in his last five away games. His ability to read the play and intercept effectively (4.2 intercepts per game) often translates into high disposal numbers. Facing the Adelaide Crows, whom he's averaged 23 disposals against in his last five matchups, Short is poised to continue his dominance. With an impressive disposal efficiency of 88.2% and a knack for generating meters gained (386.8 on average), hitting over 17.5 disposals should be well within his reach. Short's recent form, coupled with his consistency and impact, make him a strong bet to snag this line.

That is how our model reads Adelaide Crows v Richmond Tigers. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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