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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jasper Alger is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +1.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 30, 4:28AM UTC
AFL

Jasper Alger

Richmond

+1.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -263 (1.38)
+1.6% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
74.0%
Implied Probability
72.5%
Model Edge
+1.6%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals74.0%72.5%1.35+1.6%

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AI Analysis

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Jasper Alger (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jasper Alger, the numbers tell a compelling story. With a recent streak of 3 goals in as many home games and a solid average of 1.2 goals per game at the MCG, Alger is a scoring machine waiting to ignite. His knack for finding the big sticks is backed by impressive stats – averaging 2.4 shots at goal and involved in scoring plays 4 times per game. With his accurate boot boasting an 81.0% goal accuracy, Alger is not just a threat but a reliable finisher. Facing Hawthorn at home, where he feels most comfortable, the stage is set for him to snag another goal and keep his streak alive. Betting on Jasper Alger to go over 0.5 goals is not just a wager; it's a calculated move backed by his red-hot form and undeniable hunger for hitting the scoreboard.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Jasper Alger - AFL Goals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -263 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jasper Alger (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jasper Alger is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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